Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds
By Corbin King · Updated July 22, 2026
As of July 22, 2026, the prediction market implies a 74% chance of Megan Degenfelder on Polymarket, on $90.2K in traded volume.
▼ 76% → 74%since July 16, 2026
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
Megan Degenfelder — market favorite
Polymarket · $90.2K traded
74%
Implied
Live market
View the live market on Polymarket
Prices move continuously — open Polymarket for the current line.
Live markets — full navigation
Every market on this event, streaming — filter by type, tap any row for the live Kalshi & Polymarket price.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the July 22, 2026 snapshot · 61/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 20/30 | $90.2K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 16/20 | 2 live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 8/20 | Priced on one venue only — no independent book to check the number against, so this component sits at a neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 5/15 | 3 days of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
Citable signals (2)
Live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — the corroboration behind the news component. Every link is the original source.
- Trump ally wins Republican primary for Arizona governor, setting up race against Katie Hobbs
The Guardian · Jul 22, 2026
- Republicans eye Arizona comeback with Hobbs-Biggs governor matchup: Primary takeaways
The Hill · Jul 22, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Megan Degenfelder at 74% implied probability on Polymarket.
- $90K has traded across 15 markets on this event.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Wednesday, July 22 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner at 74% implied probability on Polymarket as of Wednesday, July 22. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 15 tracked markets, $90K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. Megan Degenfelder leads at 74%, a strong favorite, ahead of Eric Barlow at 21%. It currently trades on Polymarket; if it also lists on the other venue, the cross-venue gap becomes a second signal to watch.
How election markets like this resolve
Election markets resolve on the certified result. The price is a live, money-weighted read on the race — often ahead of, and sometimes at odds with, the polling average.
What could move it
New polls, candidate entries and exits, debate performances, fundraising, and primary and general results move these markets. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 74% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 74¢ implies a 74% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Wednesday, July 22; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Elections market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Elections odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner?
As of Wednesday, July 22, Polymarket price Megan Degenfelder at 74% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Megan Degenfelder?
The prediction market implies a 74% chance of Megan Degenfelder on Polymarket as of Wednesday, July 22 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This event is currently listed on Polymarket. When an event trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, W.E.T. shows the cross-venue divergence, because a gap on the same outcome can signal an edge or a difference in the fine print.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Related topics
What Is a Prediction Market? How Event Trading Works
A prediction market lets traders buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes, with prices that read as probabilities. Here is how event trading works.
Read on the WireEmbed this market
Put this live odds card on your site, newsletter, or blog — it refreshes as the market moves. Works anywhere you can paste an iframe (Substack, WordPress, Ghost, Webflow), and the attribution links back to the full W.E.T. breakdown. Browse widgets for every market on the widget gallery.
Preview
<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/predictions/wyoming-governor-republican-primary-winner-odds-2026-08-18" width="480" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds — prediction market odds by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/wyoming-governor-republican-primary-winner-odds-2026-08-18?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=wyoming-governor-republican-primary-winner-odds-2026-08-18">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.