The W.E.T. Wire
Prediction Markets, Explained
Long-form market intelligence from the W.E.T. desk — how the odds really work, where the venues diverge, and what the evidence says. These are the source dispatches we break down into threads across X and Reddit; read them whole here first.
Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Evidence vs. Polls
A balanced look at prediction market accuracy: why traded odds often beat polls, what IEM research shows, and the failure modes that distort prices.
Best Prediction Market Platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket & Beyond
How Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, PredictIt, Manifold, and Metaculus compare on regulation, funding rails, liquidity, and fees — no hype, just trade-offs.
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Should You Use?
A market-native comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket: regulation, funding rails, coverage, fees, liquidity, settlement, and which platform fits your trading.
Prediction Market Trading Strategies for Beginners
An educational guide to how traders approach prediction markets: news catalysts, value versus the crowd, venue divergence, sizing, and beginner mistakes.
What Is a Prediction Market? How Event Trading Works
A prediction market lets traders buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes, with prices that read as probabilities. Here is how event trading works.
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