Loading…
The W.E.T. Wire
Long-form market intelligence from the W.E.T. desk — how the odds really work, where the venues diverge, and what the evidence says. These are the source dispatches we break down into threads across X and Reddit; read them whole here first.
A balanced look at prediction market accuracy: why traded odds often beat polls, what IEM research shows, and the failure modes that distort prices.
How Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, PredictIt, Manifold, and Metaculus compare on regulation, funding rails, liquidity, and fees — no hype, just trade-offs.
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
A market-native comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket: regulation, funding rails, coverage, fees, liquidity, settlement, and which platform fits your trading.
An educational guide to how traders approach prediction markets: news catalysts, value versus the crowd, venue divergence, sizing, and beginner mistakes.
A prediction market lets traders buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes, with prices that read as probabilities. Here is how event trading works.
Explore W.E.T.