Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated August 6, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (August 6, 2026) was a 97% implied probability for John James on Polymarket, with $235.2K in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
John James — market favorite
Polymarket · $235.2K reported volume
97%
Implied
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 6, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
John James | Polymarket | 97% | $118.9K |
Perry Johnson | Polymarket | 2% | $85.5K |
Mike Cox | Polymarket | 1% | $8.4K |
Aric Nesbitt | Polymarket | 1% | $3.7K |
Tom Leonard | Polymarket | 1% | $2.9K |
Evan Space | Polymarket | 1% | $2.9K |
Ralph Rebandt | Polymarket | 1% | $2.8K |
Anthony Hudson | Polymarket | 1% | $2.8K |
William Null | Polymarket | 1% | $2.6K |
Karla Wagner | Polymarket | 1% | $2.5K |
Joyce Gipson | Polymarket | 1% | $2.2K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 67/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 24/30 | $235.2K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 20/20 | 3 live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 11 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (3)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
- Michigan votes in key Senate primary as Democrats battle over party’s future
The Guardian · Aug 4, 2026
- In Michigan’s 7th District’s Democratic Primary, a Centrist Split Boosts Progressive Hopes
New York Times · Aug 3, 2026
- Michigan’s Democratic Senate Primary Has Become the Party’s Ugliest Race of the Summer
New York Times · Aug 3, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, any eligible confirmed comparison, and the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a workflow: the Crowd–Market Gap Tracker, dated Index Desk reads and drivers, and the Community crowd–market gap value and direction.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: John James at 97% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 81% at the start of coverage to 97% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 97% implied probability for John James on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market closed all but certain: John James at 97% implied probability. The attributed event snapshot reports $235.2K in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 17 days: John James opened our coverage at 81%, ranged between 79% and 97%, and closed at 97%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Elections odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds?
The market closed with John James at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 97% for John James. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
Related topics
Prediction Market Trading Strategies for Beginners
An educational guide to how traders approach prediction markets: news catalysts, value versus the crowd, venue divergence, sizing, and beginner mistakes.
Read on the WireEmbed this market
Put this dated odds snapshot on your site, newsletter, or blog. The card states its as-of date and attributed venue; it changes only when W.E.T. publishes a newer observation and does not independently stream the venue. Works anywhere you can paste an iframe (Substack, WordPress, Ghost, Webflow), and the attribution links back to the full W.E.T. breakdown. Browse available snapshot cards in the widget gallery.
Preview
<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/predictions/michigan-governor-republican-primary-winner-odds-2026-08-04" width="480" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds — prediction market odds by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/michigan-governor-republican-primary-winner-odds-2026-08-04?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=michigan-governor-republican-primary-winner-odds-2026-08-04">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Explore retained event intelligence
This page is archival. Use the Event Dashboard to inspect separately dated, venue-attributed listings; numerical comparisons remain identity-gated.