Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County
By Corbin V King · Updated August 6, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (August 6, 2026) was a 97% implied probability for Haley Stevens on Polymarket, with $77.4K in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Haley Stevens — market favorite
Polymarket · $77.4K reported volume
97%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary
6 categories priced
Still contested
0
inside 15 points
Tightest
+90
Kent County (Grand
Kent County (Grandsettled
Decided- Abdul El-Sayed95%
- Haley Stevens5%
+90 pt margin · 2 nominees
Genesee Countysettled
Decided- Haley Stevens97%
- Abdul El-Sayed3%
+94 pt margin · 2 nominees
Wayne Countysettled
Decided- Haley Stevens97%
- Abdul El-Sayed3%
+94 pt margin · 2 nominees
Macomb County Winnersettled
Decided- Haley Stevens98%
- Abdul El-Sayed1%
+97 pt margin · 2 nominees
Oakland Countysettled
Decided- Haley Stevens99%
- Abdul El-Sayed1%
+98 pt margin · 2 nominees
Washtenaw Countysettled
Decided- Abdul El-Sayed99%
- Haley Stevens1%
+98 pt margin · 2 nominees
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 6, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Haley Stevens | Polymarket | 97% | $24.1K |
Abdul El-Sayed | Polymarket | 3% | $53.3K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 46/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 19/30 | $77.4K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 16/20 | 2 live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 3/15 | 2 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (2)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
- Michigan Senate Democratic primary race remains too close to call as El-Sayed holds narrow lead – US politics live
The Guardian · Aug 5, 2026
- Michigan, Missouri, Washington primary elections: Key takeaways
Al Jazeera · Aug 5, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
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Key takeaways
- Final market read: Haley Stevens at 97% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 52% at the start of coverage to 97% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 97% implied probability for Haley Stevens on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market closed all but certain: Haley Stevens at 97% implied probability. The attributed event snapshot reports $77.4K in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 12 days: Haley Stevens opened our coverage at 52%, ranged between 52% and 97%, and closed at 97%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Elections odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County?
The market closed with Haley Stevens at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 97% for Haley Stevens. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
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