CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual) — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated August 29, 2026
In W.E.T.'s August 29, 2026 pre-event snapshot, one attributed Polymarket listing recorded a 60% implied probability for Scott Wiener, with $13K in venue-reported volume. The event time has since passed, but settlement has not been recorded in this corpus.
Expired pre-event probability snapshot
Market favorite
Scott Wiener — market favorite
Polymarket · $13K reported volume
60%
Implied
Odds — expired pre-event snapshotas of August 29, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Scott Wiener | Polymarket | 60% | $3K |
Connie Chan | Polymarket | 41% | $10K |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. The event time is now behind the corpus clock, but W.E.T. has no settlement write, so this remains an expired unresolved snapshot.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the August 29, 2026 snapshot · 22/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 11/30 | $13K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 3/15 | 2 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Scott Wiener at 60% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The attributed event snapshot reports $13K in venue-native volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Saturday, August 29 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual) at 60% implied probability on Polymarket as of Saturday, August 29. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
The attributed event snapshot reports $13K in venue-native volume. Scott Wiener leads at 60%, a clear favorite, ahead of Connie Chan at 41%. It currently trades on Polymarket; a related listing on another venue remains separate until exact identity is confirmed.
How election markets like this resolve
Election markets resolve on the certified result. The price is a live, venue-attributed read on the race — often ahead of, and sometimes at odds with, the polling average.
What could move it
New polls, candidate entries and exits, debate performances, fundraising, and primary and general results move these markets. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 60% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 60¢ implies a 60% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Saturday, August 29; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Elections market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Elections odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)?
As of Saturday, August 29, Polymarket price Scott Wiener at 60% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Scott Wiener?
The prediction market implies a 60% chance of Scott Wiener on Polymarket as of Saturday, August 29 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. This dated snapshot records Polymarket only. W.E.T. publishes no cross-venue comparison without the same event, outcome, and resolution terms observed on another venue.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Related topics
Best Prediction Market Platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket & Beyond
How Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, PredictIt, Manifold, and Metaculus compare on regulation, funding rails, liquidity, and fees — no hype, just trade-offs.
Read on the WireEmbed this market
Put this dated odds snapshot on your site, newsletter, or blog. The card states its as-of date and attributed venue; it changes only when W.E.T. publishes a newer observation and does not independently stream the venue. Works anywhere you can paste an iframe (Substack, WordPress, Ghost, Webflow), and the attribution links back to the full W.E.T. breakdown. Browse available snapshot cards in the widget gallery.
Preview
<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/predictions/ca-11-house-election-winner-individual-odds-2026-11-03" width="480" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual) — Odds — prediction market odds by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/ca-11-house-election-winner-individual-odds-2026-11-03?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=ca-11-house-election-winner-individual-odds-2026-11-03">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Explore retained event intelligence
This page is archival. Use the Event Dashboard to inspect separately dated, venue-attributed listings; numerical comparisons remain identity-gated.