Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

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Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Evidence & research ↓

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The Market Read

18 listings in the selected Polymarket event.

No event-level probability, favorite, or “tight race” is inferred across these propositions. Use the listing table for each venue’s exact question and observation.

Polymarket markets18Polymarket volume$152.9KEvent venuesPolymarketchecking coverage…

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Checking other venues. The selected venue listings are available below.

Markets on this event

Venue-attributed quotes · open listing details

Matt Damon

Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$38.3K vol

Andrew Scott

Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$18.8K vol

Tom Cruise

Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$16.6K vol

John Malkovich

Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$13.8K vol

Brad Pitt

Will Brad Pitt win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$10.4K vol

Robert Pattinson

Will Robert Pattinson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$8.2K vol

Jeremy Strong

Will Jeremy Strong win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$5.4K vol

Ryan Gosling

Will Ryan Gosling win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$5.3K vol

Sam Rockwell

Will Sam Rockwell win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$4.9K vol

Jaafar Jackson

Will Jaafar Jackson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$4.6K vol

Timothée Chalamet

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$4.3K vol

Pedro Pascal

Will Pedro Pascal win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$3.7K vol

Robert Aramayo

Will Robert Aramayo win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$3.5K vol

Sebastian Stan

Will Sebastian Stan win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$3.5K vol

John Turturro

Will John Turturro win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$3.5K vol

Javier Bardem

Will Javier Bardem win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$3.3K vol

Adam Driver

Will Adam Driver win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$2.7K vol

Josh O'Connor

Will Josh O'Connor win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC·$1.9K vol

Evidence

Stored reads · labeled by measure

Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.

Evidence

Stored reads · labeled by measure

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-09-29 00:20 UTC: 18 listing keys checked against 1581 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Datarelated measurement

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2027Ceremonyoscarsevent identity
2027-07-01 03:59 UTCPolymarket contracts closevenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Market

Refused · no-source

no stored capture for this event yet

Availability details

Measured 2026-09-29 04:01 UTC: no odds-single-listing/v3 rows for polymarket:oscars-2027-best-actor-winner-20260727174302919 since 2026-09-22

Retires when the odds capture writes a row for this event (it covers the live markets directory only, change-gated hourly)

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a t…
Full text
ie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)

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