EntertainmentDec 31

Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film

In 2027

Live board · a full analysis page publishes if this event qualifies for daily coverage.

The Market Read

11 listings in the selected Kalshi event.

No event-level probability, favorite, or “tight race” is inferred across these propositions. Use the listing table for each venue’s exact question and observation.

Kalshi markets11Kalshi volume24K contractsEvent venuesKalshiPolymarketKalshichecking coverage…

Driving Coverage

Open the Newsroom →

The 98th Academy Awards | 2026

Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences · 198d ago

Guardian announces global release plans for documentary feature film NAZA, directed by Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor

The Guardian · 5d ago

'No Other Land' wins Oscar for best documentary feature film - ABC News

Breaking News, Latest News and Videos · 230d ago

'Mr. Nobody Against Putin' wins best documentary feature Oscar

Reuters · 198d ago

Oscars 2027 International Feature Film Submissions By Country: Denmark, Italy & Spain Among Latest To Declare

Deadline · 7d ago

4 Films Tied For The 1st Oscar For Best Documentary (And None Of Them Were Features)

Nonfics · 56d ago

Oscars best international feature 2027: Italy submits ‘The Spiral’, Poland enters ‘Fatherland’

Screen Daily · 6d ago

Why Best Documentary Feature could make or break your Oscar ballot: ‘Perfect Neighbor’ vs. ‘Mr. Nobody Against Putin’

Gold Derby · 200d ago

Scanning the wire…

More market categories are available below.

Markets on this event

One outcome · all venue odds · open listing details

Aligned outcomes share one row. Each quote retains its venue and observation time. NO marks the opposite contract side; measurement, cutoff, settlement rules and fees can differ.

Actor

29Kalshi · Polymarket

Adam Driver

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.2%01:41 UTC

Andrew Scott

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi21.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket24%01:41 UTC

Brad Pitt

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.6%01:41 UTC

Jeremy Strong

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.7%01:41 UTC

John Malkovich

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi31.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket36.1%01:41 UTC

Josh O'Connor

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.2%01:41 UTC

Matt Damon

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi25.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket21.5%01:41 UTC

Pedro Pascal

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.3%01:41 UTC

Ryan Gosling

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi1.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket1.3%01:41 UTC

Sebastian Stan

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket1.6%01:41 UTC

Timothée Chalamet

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi4.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket1.2%01:41 UTC

Tom Cruise

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi15.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket11%01:41 UTC

Anthony Ippolito

Will Anthony Ippolito win Best Actor at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·36.2K contracts vol

Yes 2%No 98%

Channing Tatum

Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·1.5K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Charles Melton

Will Charles Melton win Best Actor at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·568 contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Ethan Hawke

Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·5.5K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Hanns Zischler

Will Hanns Zischler win Best Actor at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·245 contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Jaafar Jackson

Will Jaafar Jackson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$4.6K vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Jacob Tremblay

Will Jacob Tremblay win Best Actor at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·300 contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Jafar Jackson

Will Jafar Jackson win Best Actor at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·49.1K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Best Picture

45Kalshi · Polymarket

All of a Sudden

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.3%01:41 UTC

Avengers: Doomsday

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.1%01:41 UTC

Behemoth

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.7%01:41 UTC

Digger

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.5%01:41 UTC

Disclosure Day

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.1%01:41 UTC

Dune: Part Three

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi9.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket12%01:41 UTC

Fjord

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi1.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket1.3%01:41 UTC

Josephine

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.2%01:41 UTC

Michael

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.1%01:41 UTC

Project Hail Mary

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket1.8%01:41 UTC

The Debut

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi2.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket2%01:41 UTC

The Drama

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.3%01:41 UTC

The Invite

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.7%01:41 UTC

The Odyssey

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi48.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket44.5%01:41 UTC

The Social Reckoning

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket0.3%01:41 UTC

Wild Horse Nine

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi3.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket3.5%01:41 UTC

Artificial

Will Artificial win Best Picture at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·104.3K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Being Heumann

Will Being Heumann win Best Picture at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·9.1K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Clarissa

Will Clarissa win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$1.4K vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Club Kid

Will Club Kid win Best Picture at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·64.2K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Outcomes

102Kalshi

Project Hail Mary

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·168.3K contracts vol

Yes 80%No 20%

The Odyssey

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·139.7K contracts vol

Yes 97%No 3%

Obsession

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·92.6K contracts vol

Yes 43%No 57%

Tie

Will Tie win Best Picture at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·67.6K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Wild Horse Nine

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·50.7K contracts vol

Yes 90%No 10%

Ryan Gosling

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·47.7K contracts vol

Yes 54%No 46%

Tom Cruise

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·47K contracts vol

Yes 34%No 66%

Digger

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·43.7K contracts vol

Yes 16%No 84%

Disclosure Day

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·38.9K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Fjord

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·36.7K contracts vol

Yes 51%No 49%

Tie

Will Tie win Best Actor at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·35.5K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Robert Pattinson

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·35.3K contracts vol

Yes 50%No 50%

You Can See Everything

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·33.5K contracts vol

Yes 35%No 65%

Jaafar Jackson

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·32.7K contracts vol

Yes 14%No 86%

Pedro Pascal

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·32.2K contracts vol

Yes 17%No 83%

Matt Damon

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·32.1K contracts vol

Yes 89%No 11%

The Invite

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·28.6K contracts vol

Yes 66%No 34%

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·28.2K contracts vol

Yes 2%No 98%

I Play Rocky

2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·27.3K contracts vol

Yes 38%No 62%

Andrew Scott

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·26.6K contracts vol

Yes 92%No 8%

Supporting Actress

15Kalshi · Polymarket

Anne Hathaway

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi52%01:41 UTCPolymarket51.5%01:41 UTC

Betty Gilpin

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi2%01:41 UTCPolymarket5%01:41 UTC

Danielle Deadwyler

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket3.3%01:41 UTC

Gemma Chan

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi3%01:41 UTCPolymarket1.9%01:41 UTC

Inde Navarrette

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi3%01:41 UTCPolymarket1.6%01:41 UTC

Isabella Rossellini

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket3.5%01:41 UTC

Margaret Qualley

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi2.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket3.6%01:41 UTC

Mariana di Girolamo

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket6.7%01:41 UTC

Parker Posey

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi2.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket3.5%01:41 UTC

Penélope Cruz

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi20%01:41 UTCPolymarket16.5%01:41 UTC

Sandra Hüller

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi7.5%01:41 UTCPolymarket5.4%01:41 UTC

Tao Okamoto

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi2%01:41 UTCPolymarket15.8%01:41 UTC

Zendaya

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi3%01:41 UTCPolymarket5.5%01:41 UTC

Amanda Seyfried

Will Amanda Seyfried win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·3.2K contracts vol

Yes 10%No 90%

Kate O'Flynn

Will Kate O'Flynn win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·2.9K contracts vol

Yes 10%No 90%

More market categories on this event 22

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Checking other venues. The selected venue listings are available below.

Markets on this event

Venue-attributed quotes · open listing details

You Can See Everything

Will You Can See Everything win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·9.3K contracts vol

Yes 49%No 51%

Once Upon a Time in Harlem

Will Once Upon a Time in Harlem win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·6K contracts vol

Yes 8%No 92%

American Doctor

Will American Doctor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·4.5K contracts vol

Yes 33%No 67%

NAZA

Will NAZA win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·2.7K contracts vol

Yes 35%No 65%

One in a Million

Will One in a Million win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·735 contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Nuisance Bear

Will Nuisance Bear win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·619 contracts vol

Yes 11%No 89%

Tutu

Will Tutu win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·179 contracts vol

Yes 2%No 98%

Musk

Will Musk win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·43 contracts vol

Yes 11%No 89%

Tie

Will Tie win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·21 contracts vol

Yes 5%No 95%

Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party

Will Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·6 contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

14th

Will 14th win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·Volume unavailable

Yes —No —

Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film

Driving Coverage

Markets on this event

Actor

Best Picture

Outcomes

Supporting Actress

Markets on this event

Evidence

WET Index relationship

Anchor research

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Official — venue settlement rules

Evidence

Markets on this event

Actor

Best Picture

Outcomes

Supporting Actress

Evidence

WET Index relationship

Anchor research

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Official — venue settlement rules