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Selected contract: Michael
Checking venue odds for this outcome…
All event outcomes →Bid/ask midpoint · WET received 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
Market backs No at 99.5% — all but decided.
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The Signal Sheet
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Native contract response received . This is WET’s document ingestion time.
Refused · no-key-match
no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent
Measured 2026-09-29 00:20 UTC: one listing key checked against 1581 keyed constituent refs
Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt
Refused · not-configured
The research engine has not been activated.
Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised
As-of time not recorded · unknown
Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row
As-of time not recorded · unknown
Kalshi · retrieved 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC · venue terms permit display · venue-settlement-rules/v1
Michael · select venue
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Kalshi · YES side
Will Michael win Best Picture at the Oscars?
Venue cutoff 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z · 193.8K contracts
If Michael has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.
Polymarket · YES side
Will Michael win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
Venue cutoff 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z · $1.6K
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket links search the US catalog. Availability and terms may differ from the global quote.