Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
By Corbin V King · Updated September 5, 2026
As of September 5, 2026, the prediction market implies a 89% chance of Flávio Bolsonaro on Polymarket, with $6.5M in venue-reported volume.
▲ 84% → 89%since September 4, 2026
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Flávio Bolsonaro — market favorite
Polymarket · $6.5M reported volume
89%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Brazil Presidential Election First Round
14 categories priced
Still contested
1
inside 15 points
Tightest
+6
Margin of
Margin of
Contested- Lula da Silva <5%45%
- Lula da Silva 5-10%39%
- Lula da Silva 10-15%6%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%6%
- Lula da Silva 15%+4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+2%
+6 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
1st Place in
Clear favourite- Lula64%
- Flavio Bolsonaro38%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Rui Costa Pimenta1%
- Escritor Augusto Cury1%
- Clariana Barao1%
+26 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
3rd Place
Clear favourite- Augusto Cury52%
- Renan Santos26%
- Ronaldo Caiado10%
- Flávio Bolsonaro2%
- Pablo Marçal2%
- Ratinho Júnior1%
+26 pt margin · 19 nominees · 13 more
1st Place in
Clear favourite- Lula65%
- Flavio Bolsonaro34%
- Renan Santos1%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi1%
- Rui Costa Pimenta1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
+31 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Clear favourite- Flavio Bolsonaro62%
- Ronaldo Caiado30%
- Lula1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Renan Santos1%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi1%
+32 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Clear favourite- Flavio Bolsonaro68%
- Lula31%
- Renan Santos1%
- Ronaldo Caiado1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi1%
+37 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Clear favourite- Lula65%
- Flavio Bolsonaro26%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Hertz Dias1%
- Renan Santos1%
- Escritor Augusto Cury1%
+39 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Decided- Flavio Bolsonaro78%
- Lula21%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Zema1%
- Clariana Barao1%
- Hertz Dias1%
+57 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Decided- Flavio Bolsonaro78%
- Lula20%
- Clariana Barao1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Ronaldo Caiado1%
- Edmilson Costa1%
+58 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
2nd Place
Decided- Flávio Bolsonaro89%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva8%
- Renan Santos2%
- Fernando Haddad1%
- Ratinho Júnior1%
- Ronaldo Caiado1%
+81 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
1st Place in
Decided- Flavio Bolsonaro92%
- Lula6%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi2%
- Samara1%
- Hertz Dias1%
- Escritor Augusto Cury1%
+86 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Decided- Lula88%
- Flavio Bolsonaro2%
- Zema1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Samara1%
- Renan Santos1%
+86 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Decided- Lula93%
- Flavio Bolsonaro5%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi1%
- Zema1%
- Hertz Dias1%
- Samara1%
+88 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Decided- Lula95%
- Clariana Barao4%
- Flavio Bolsonaro1%
- Samara1%
- Ronaldo Caiado1%
- Rui Costa Pimenta1%
+91 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Fetched venue snapshot — market navigation
One cached fetch of the venue-attributed rows W.E.T. matched to this event. Filter the returned rows by type; this panel does not poll, subscribe, or claim exhaustive venue coverage.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 5, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Flávio Bolsonaro | Polymarket | 89% | $590.1K |
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | Polymarket | 8% | $469.6K |
Renan Santos | Polymarket | 2% | $1.2M |
Fernando Haddad | Polymarket | 1% | $810.1K |
Ratinho Júnior | Polymarket | 1% | $750.2K |
Ronaldo Caiado | Polymarket | 1% | $452.5K |
Romeu Zema | Polymarket | 1% | $380.1K |
Tarcisio de Freitas | Polymarket | 1% | $274.5K |
Geraldo Alckmin | Polymarket | 1% | $228.7K |
Michelle Bolsonaro | Polymarket | 1% | $218.9K |
Camilo Santana | Polymarket | 1% | $207.8K |
Jair Bolsonaro | Polymarket | 1% | $204.9K |
Eduardo Bolsonaro | Polymarket | 1% | $173.5K |
Aldo Rebelo | Polymarket | 1% | $143.6K |
Augusto Cury | Polymarket | 1% | $142.8K |
Eduardo Leite | Polymarket | 1% | $142.4K |
Tereza Cristina | Polymarket | 1% | $35.5K |
Helder Barbalho | Polymarket | 1% | $21K |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 5, 2026 snapshot · 61/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $6.5M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 18 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 8/15 | 5 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
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Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 89% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $6.5M in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Saturday, September 5 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place at 89% implied probability on Polymarket as of Saturday, September 5. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 18 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $6.5M in venue-native event volume. Flávio Bolsonaro leads at 89%, a strong favorite, ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 8%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How election markets like this resolve
Election markets resolve on the certified result. The displayed number is a venue-attributed market price — often ahead of, and sometimes at odds with, the polling average.
What could move it
New polls, candidate entries and exits, debate performances, fundraising, and primary and general results move these markets. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 89% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 89¢ implies a 89% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Saturday, September 5; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place?
As of Saturday, September 5, Polymarket price Flávio Bolsonaro at 89% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Flávio Bolsonaro?
The prediction market implies a 89% chance of Flávio Bolsonaro on Polymarket as of Saturday, September 5 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Related topics
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