Research Tools · Sentiment Context
Crowd–Market Gap Tracker
The live venue feed is unavailable, so this board demonstrates the crowd–market gap workflow with explicitly illustrative fallback values. No row is a current market observation.
The live market feed is unavailable. Both market probability and crowd sentiment are deterministic examples; no row is a current market observation or trade signal.
Fed cuts rates at the next meeting?
▲ 13 pts120 sample votes · leans over
S&P 500 sets a record high this quarter?
▲ 13 pts110 sample votes · leans over
NYC hits 100°F this summer?
▼ 10 pts40 sample votes · leans under
Government shutdown this quarter?
▼ 9 pts266 sample votes · leans under
A new frontier AI model ships this year?
▲ 8 pts433 sample votes · leans over
Approval rating above 45% at quarter end?
▲ 7 pts386 sample votes · leans over
Oil above $90 this month?
▲ 6 pts189 sample votes · leans under
Bitcoin above $100,000 at year end?
▲ 5 pts457 sample votes · leans over
Widest illustrative gap on the board: 13 pts. This is a sentiment comparison, not venue divergence or a trade signal.
The gap is information, not a signal
Prediction markets aggregate money; crowds aggregate opinion. Most of the time they agree — and when they don’t, it’s worth asking why. Sometimes the crowd is anchored on a narrative the market has already moved past; sometimes thin liquidity leaves a market lagging what everyone can see. Read the gap, then check the live market on the predictions desk or test manually entered YES and NO asks with the YES/NO pair calculator.
Frequently asked questions
What is the crowd–market gap?
It is crowd sentiment minus a market’s implied probability. W.E.T. labels the metric crowd_gap so it cannot be confused with cross-venue divergence. The crowd side is illustrative today, and the result is context rather than a trade signal.
How is this different from the YES/NO pair calculator?
The calculator compares user-entered executable YES and NO asks and reports theoretical gross and after-fee margin. The Crowd–Market Gap Tracker compares market probability with sentiment. Neither executes trades or establishes a guaranteed return.
Is the crowd sentiment real?
Crowd sentiment is an illustrative sample until the W.E.T. Crowd Index is connected. When a live venue feed is available, the market side is labeled live; if it is unavailable, the board labels both sides as illustrative fallback data. Sentiment is not a market price or trade signal.
Does a wide gap mean easy money?
No. A gap is information, not an edge. Crowds are often wrong, markets are often right, and vice versa — the point is to notice disagreement and ask why, not to trade it blindly.
Educational tool, not advice. Sentiment is community opinion, not a market price. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; venues may be restricted in your jurisdiction. 18+.