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Trader Tools · The Divergence Reader
Where the crowd disagrees with the market. This reads live prediction-market implied probability against community sentiment and ranks every market by the size of the gap — the one view neither the price nor the crowd shows on its own.
Market prices are live. Crowd sentiment shown here is an illustrative sample — it wires to real community votes when the W.E.T. Crowd Index ships. Sentiment, not a market price. Not a trade signal.
Fed cuts rates at the next meeting?
▲ 13 pts120 sample votes · leans over
S&P 500 sets a record high this quarter?
▲ 13 pts110 sample votes · leans over
NYC hits 100°F this summer?
▼ 10 pts40 sample votes · leans under
Government shutdown this quarter?
▼ 9 pts266 sample votes · leans under
A new frontier AI model ships this year?
▲ 8 pts433 sample votes · leans over
Approval rating above 45% at quarter end?
▲ 7 pts386 sample votes · leans over
Oil above $90 this month?
▲ 6 pts189 sample votes · leans under
Bitcoin above $100,000 at year end?
▲ 5 pts457 sample votes · leans over
Widest gap on the board: 13 pts. A persistent wide gap means the crowd and the market genuinely disagree.
Prediction markets aggregate money; crowds aggregate opinion. Most of the time they agree — and when they don’t, it’s worth asking why. Sometimes the crowd is anchored on a narrative the market has already moved past; sometimes thin liquidity leaves a market lagging what everyone can see. Read the gap, then check the live market on the predictions desk or compare venues with the arbitrage checker.
The gap between a market’s implied probability (what traders are paying) and crowd sentiment (what a community says will happen). When they disagree by a wide margin, one side is seeing something the other is not — that is the signal worth reading.
The arbitrage checker computes locked profit from two prices you type across two venues. The divergence tracker reads a live spread — market price vs crowd sentiment — and ranks where the disagreement is widest. One is a calculator; this is a monitor.
The market prices are live. The crowd sentiment shown today is an illustrative sample — it connects to real community votes when the W.E.T. Crowd Index ships. Either way it is sentiment, not a market price, and never a trade signal.
No. A gap is information, not an edge. Crowds are often wrong, markets are often right, and vice versa — the point is to notice disagreement and ask why, not to trade it blindly.
Educational tool, not advice. Sentiment is community opinion, not a market price. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; venues may be restricted in your jurisdiction. 18+.