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Live Prediction Markets
As of July 22, 2026, prediction markets make Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the 61% favorite to win Brazil Presidential Election, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 25% — on $114.4M traded across 4 futures markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Every Brazil Presidential Election market W.E.T. tracks, in one arena — implied probability, volume, and movement, updated daily as the field forms. Implied probability is a live market price, not a forecast; see the methodology.
The field
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$7.5M traded
Flávio Bolsonaro
$7.5M traded
Renan Santos
$8.2M traded
Tarcisio de Freitas
$13.5M traded
Ratinho Júnior
$10.4M traded
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$10.3M traded
Michelle Bolsonaro
$9.1M traded
Eduardo Leite
$7.9M traded
4
Live markets
$119.3M
Tracked volume
0
Settled archives
2
Venues
| Market | Market’s call | Implied % | Venue | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Presidential Election — Odds & Probability | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 61% | Polymarket | $114.4M |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place | Flávio Bolsonaro | 78% | Polymarket | $4.2M |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place — Odds & Probability | Renan Santos | 71% | Polymarket | $445.2K |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of | Lula da Silva 5-10% | 36% | Polymarket | $287.4K |
Each row is a full market page — history, venue split, and the news signals behind the price.
How this arena settles
As Brazil Presidential Election settles, every market in this arena converts to a dated archive — final read, frozen. The URL never changes and the page never comes down: it becomes the permanent answer to "what did the markets say about Brazil Presidential Election." Part of the Big Event Desk — a new arena every quarter.
Answers
As of July 22, 2026, prediction markets make Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the favorite to win Brazil Presidential Election at 61% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 25%, on $114.4M in traded volume on Polymarket. That is a live money-weighted price, not a forecast.
Brazil Presidential Election is scheduled for October 4, 2026. W.E.T. tracks every futures market on it daily as the field forms.
W.E.T. tracks $119.3M in traded volume across 4 Brazil Presidential Election markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Volume figures are cumulative traded dollars reported by the venues, as of July 22, 2026.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated US exchange) and Polymarket (crypto-native). W.E.T. aggregates both books in one place — implied probability, volume, and the cross-venue gap when the same market trades on both — as data, not advice.
No. Implied probability is a live market price — what traders are collectively paying for each outcome — not a forecast from W.E.T. Prices reprice continuously as the field forms.
Explore W.E.T.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Implied probabilities are live market prices, not forecasts or advice. Prediction markets may be restricted in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+.
The news wire
The wire is quiet on the Brazil Presidential Election right now.