Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in
By Corbin V King · Updated August 23, 2026
As of August 23, 2026, the prediction market implies a 62% chance of Flavio Bolsonaro on Polymarket, with $44.8K in venue-reported volume.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Flavio Bolsonaro — market favorite
Polymarket · $44.8K reported volume
62%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Brazil Presidential Election First Round
16 categories priced
Still contested
1
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Augusto Cury
Augusto Cury
Contested- 4-6%38%
- 2-4%38%
- 1-2%13%
- 6%+8%
- <1%4%
+0 pt margin · 5 nominees
Renan Santos
Clear favourite- 2-4%52%
- 4-6%28%
- <2%8%
- 6-8%7%
- 8%+6%
+24 pt margin · 5 nominees
Margin of
Clear favourite- Lula da Silva <5%53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%29%
- Lula da Silva 5-10%9%
- Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%8%
- Renan Santos Victory1%
- Lula da Silva 10-15%1%
+24 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
1st Place in
Clear favourite- Lula64%
- Flavio Bolsonaro38%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Rui Costa Pimenta1%
- Escritor Augusto Cury1%
- Clariana Barao1%
+26 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Clear favourite- Lula65%
- Flavio Bolsonaro34%
- Renan Santos1%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi1%
- Rui Costa Pimenta1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
+31 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Clear favourite- Flavio Bolsonaro62%
- Ronaldo Caiado30%
- Lula1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Renan Santos1%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi1%
+32 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Clear favourite- Flavio Bolsonaro68%
- Lula31%
- Renan Santos1%
- Ronaldo Caiado1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi1%
+37 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Clear favourite- Lula65%
- Flavio Bolsonaro26%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Hertz Dias1%
- Renan Santos1%
- Escritor Augusto Cury1%
+39 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Lula Vote
Decided- 44%+70%
- 41-44%22%
- 38-41%5%
- 35-38%4%
- <35%2%
+48 pt margin · 5 nominees
1st Place in
Decided- Flavio Bolsonaro78%
- Lula21%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Zema1%
- Clariana Barao1%
- Hertz Dias1%
+57 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Decided- Flavio Bolsonaro78%
- Lula20%
- Clariana Barao1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Ronaldo Caiado1%
- Edmilson Costa1%
+58 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Flávio
Decided- 39%+90%
- 36-39%9%
- 33-36%1%
- 30-33%1%
- <30%1%
+81 pt margin · 5 nominees
1st Place in
Decided- Flavio Bolsonaro92%
- Lula6%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi2%
- Samara1%
- Hertz Dias1%
- Escritor Augusto Cury1%
+86 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Decided- Lula88%
- Flavio Bolsonaro2%
- Zema1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Samara1%
- Renan Santos1%
+86 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Decided- Lula93%
- Flavio Bolsonaro5%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi1%
- Zema1%
- Hertz Dias1%
- Samara1%
+88 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place in
Decided- Lula95%
- Clariana Barao4%
- Flavio Bolsonaro1%
- Samara1%
- Ronaldo Caiado1%
- Rui Costa Pimenta1%
+91 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of August 23, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Flavio Bolsonaro | Polymarket | 62% | $21.5K |
Ronaldo Caiado | Polymarket | 30% | $11.9K |
Lula | Polymarket | 1% | $5.6K |
Pablo Marçal | Polymarket | 1% | $1.5K |
Renan Santos | Polymarket | 1% | $570 |
Veterinário Wilson Grassi | Polymarket | 1% | $537 |
Hertz Dias | Polymarket | 1% | $519 |
Escritor Augusto Cury | Polymarket | 1% | $494 |
Clariana Barao | Polymarket | 1% | $469 |
Edmilson Costa | Polymarket | 1% | $458 |
Zema | Polymarket | 1% | $444 |
Samara | Polymarket | 1% | $398 |
Rui Costa Pimenta | Polymarket | 1% | $385 |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the August 23, 2026 snapshot · 40/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 17/30 | $44.8K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 13 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Flavio Bolsonaro at 62% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The attributed event snapshot reports $44.8K in venue-native volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Sunday, August 23 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás at 62% implied probability on Polymarket as of Sunday, August 23. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
The attributed event snapshot reports $44.8K in venue-native volume. Flavio Bolsonaro leads at 62%, a clear favorite, ahead of Ronaldo Caiado at 30%. It currently trades on Polymarket; a related listing on another venue remains separate until exact identity is confirmed.
How election markets like this resolve
Election markets resolve on the certified result. The price is a live, venue-attributed read on the race — often ahead of, and sometimes at odds with, the polling average.
What could move it
New polls, candidate entries and exits, debate performances, fundraising, and primary and general results move these markets. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 62% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 62¢ implies a 62% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Sunday, August 23; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Elections market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Elections odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás?
As of Sunday, August 23, Polymarket price Flavio Bolsonaro at 62% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Flavio Bolsonaro?
The prediction market implies a 62% chance of Flavio Bolsonaro on Polymarket as of Sunday, August 23 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. This dated snapshot records Polymarket only. W.E.T. publishes no cross-venue comparison without the same event, outcome, and resolution terms observed on another venue.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Related topics
Best Prediction Market Platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket & Beyond
How Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, PredictIt, Manifold, and Metaculus compare on regulation, funding rails, liquidity, and fees — no hype, just trade-offs.
Read on the WireEmbed this market
Put this dated odds snapshot on your site, newsletter, or blog. The card states its as-of date and attributed venue; it changes only when W.E.T. publishes a newer observation and does not independently stream the venue. Works anywhere you can paste an iframe (Substack, WordPress, Ghost, Webflow), and the attribution links back to the full W.E.T. breakdown. Browse available snapshot cards in the widget gallery.
Preview
<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/predictions/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-1st-place-in-goias-odds-2026-10-04" width="480" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in — prediction market odds by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-1st-place-in-goias-odds-2026-10-04?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=brazil-presidential-election-first-round-1st-place-in-goias-odds-2026-10-04">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Continue through event navigation
Browse fetched venue snapshots, catalysts, and attributed listings. Numerical comparisons remain withheld until the canonical graph confirms the same outcome and settlement basis.