W.E.T. World Risk Index: methodology

The W.E.T. World Risk Index is a daily 0–100 headline blend of the desk's world-risk legs — the prediction-market VIX for world events.

Components

It is a declared weighted mean of sibling W.E.T. indices (each already a 0–100 benchmark computed from live prices), spanning the desk's risk dimensions:

• 40% Geopolitical Risk (WGRI)
• 25% Recession Odds (WRCI)
• 20% Commodity Stress (WCOS)
• 15% Climate & Disaster Risk (WCDR)

Value

The index is the weighted mean of those leg values. It reads markets only through its audited legs — it is a blend of benchmarks, not a forecast. On a day when a leg has no live markets, the composite is computed over the available legs with their weights renormalized (and shows which legs it used), so a thin leg never blanks the headline; it reports insufficient data only if fewer than two legs are live.

Publication & freshness

Recomputed daily after its legs publish; every point is appended to a permanent, citable history. The weights above are fixed and versioned — any change bumps the methodology version.

What this index is not

This is a benchmark reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast and not advice. A high value does not predict that the event happens — it reports what prediction-market traders are collectively pricing right now. Prices move continuously and can be wrong.

An accuracy record for a benchmark requires resolved outcomes accumulated over time. W.E.T. publishes this index daily with a dated, immutable history from first publication — that published series is the audit trail. Calibration analysis will ship strictly when the resolved-outcome corpus supports it, never before. See the site methodology for the same discipline applied to the W.E.T. Score.