Geopolitical Risk Index
WGRIW.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index
How much geopolitical conflict risk the prediction market is pricing today.
Higher = more conflict/escalation risk priced into markets. Lower = calmer.
History · 2 days
Computed from 11 markets (effective 5.3) · 0 Kalshi / 11 Polymarket · $17.1M vol · top holding 25%
The desk read
Rose 2.4 to 69.3 (Elevated), led by Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by Decemb… (resolved/left) −2.2; Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31,… +1.5; Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? +1.5.
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- −2.2
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
left the index · polymarket
- +1.5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
92% · 25% wt · polymarket
- +1.5
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
77% · 21% wt · polymarket
- +1.0
Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?
99% · 11% wt · polymarket
- +0.3
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
88% · 4% wt · polymarket
- +0.1
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
19% · 6% wt · polymarket
WGRI · at a glance
- What it is
- The fear gauge for geopolitics — a VIX for war risk.
- High vs low
- Higher = more conflict/escalation risk priced into markets. Lower = calmer.
- Who cares
- Risk desks, foreign-affairs reporters, and anyone tracking whether the world is heating up or cooling down.
What's in it today
The live markets feeding today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
| Market | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 92% | 25.0% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | polymarket | 49% | 25.0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | polymarket | 77% | 21.1% |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31? | polymarket | 99% | 10.6% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 19% | 5.8% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | polymarket | 88% | 4.3% |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 4% | 3.1% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 67% | 2.1% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | polymarket | 63% | 1.6% |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? | polymarket | 8% | 1.4% |
| Will 52 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General? | polymarket | 39% | 0.0% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 23, 2026, the W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index (WGRI) reads 69.3/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.