Superseded · no longer on the board
This reading predates the desk’s current standard — it carries no compiled methodology, no inverse twin and no failure ladder. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It rejoins the board the day its methodology is compiled and ratified. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index
v3SlateAs of Sep 5, 2026 · last moved Aug 31, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Calm → Elevated risk)
How much geopolitical conflict risk the prediction market is pricing today.
No level published — this book's daily returns cannot be attributed to its own holdings. On 19 days the per-market contributions do not sum to the day's return; the widest break is 2026-08-19, off by 2.14e-3. Cash earns nothing here and there are no flows, so that sum is an identity, not an approximation — a gap means the replay and the attribution disagree about what this basket held. The level is withheld until they agree.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- 0.45pts
- Holdings marked
- 93.8% of 48
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 48
- Settled
- 5
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 48 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 28c1.0¢ spread · 28.7k/26.7k within 5¢polymarketYES28c26c−7.3%14.1%Polymarket ↗
- NATO article 5 before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c8c+25.0%14.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 53c32 sessions stalepolymarketYES53c53c0.0%14.1%Polymarket ↗
- US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c4c−54.7%14.1%Polymarket ↗
- NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10cpolymarketYES10c7c−27.5%14.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 93c0.2¢ spread · 14.2k/3300.7k within 5¢polymarketYES93c96c+2.7%9.8%Polymarket ↗
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 90cpolymarketNO90c92c+2.2%9.8%Polymarket ↗
- Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c5c−18.2%9.8%Polymarket ↗
- China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 11cpolymarketYES11c8c−28.6%9.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c1c−77.7%7.7%Polymarket ↗
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 63c2.0¢ spread · 2.6k/2.3k within 5¢polymarketNO63c80c+28.0%7.5%Polymarket ↗
- NATO dissolves before 2027?polymarket · NO · entry 97cpolymarketNO97c98c+1.1%7.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?polymarket · YES · entry 56cpolymarketYES56c49c−13.3%5.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 27c1.0¢ spread · 905.8k/606.1k within 5¢polymarketYES27c14c−49.1%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.1¢ spread · 15893.3k/279.5k within 5¢polymarketYES4c4c−2.5%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.0¢ spread · 3220.3k/380.7k within 5¢polymarketYES9c8c−11.8%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.2¢ spread · 179.7k/28.7k within 5¢polymarketYES4c4c−14.6%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 67c1.0¢ spread · 95.0k/101.0k within 5¢polymarketYES67c69c+2.2%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 77c0.6¢ spread · 27.7k/64.3k within 5¢polymarketYES77c85c+9.1%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 24c1.0¢ spread · 42.3k/27.0k within 5¢polymarketYES24c14c−42.6%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c1.0¢ spread · 259.1k/61.7k within 5¢polymarketYES10c7c−31.6%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 8c1.0¢ spread · 72.6k/11.5k within 5¢polymarketYES8c7c−13.2%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.0¢ spread · 287.9k/47.2k within 5¢polymarketYES9c7c−23.5%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 14c1.0¢ spread · 248.7k/94.5k within 5¢polymarketYES14c12c−14.8%4.1%Polymarket ↗
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?polymarket · NO · entry 82c1.0¢ spread · 39.7k/12.5k within 5¢polymarketNO82c88c+7.4%4.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.0¢ spread · 423.8k/63.8k within 5¢polymarketYES9c6c−35.3%4.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 6c1.0¢ spread · 159.6k/81.6k within 5¢polymarketYES6c5c−18.2%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 10c1.0¢ spread · 279.6k/40.8k within 5¢polymarketYES10c6c−42.1%3.3%Polymarket ↗
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 13c1.0¢ spread · 188.9k/56.1k within 5¢polymarketYES13c7c−48.0%3.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · YES · entry 49c1.5¢ spread · 2.0k/6.5k within 5¢polymarketYES49c48c−1.5%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 25c1.0¢ spread · 45.4k/79.8k within 5¢polymarketYES25c13c−49.0%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c1c−69.0%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.1¢ spread · 162.8k/6.3k within 5¢polymarketYES4c3c−28.7%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 44c1.2¢ spread · 336/201 within 5¢polymarketYES44c83c+90.3%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Iran Nuke before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 5c0.1¢ spread · 230.7k/7.0k within 5¢polymarketYES5c4c−25.7%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.0¢ spread · 57.8k/20.0k within 5¢polymarketYES9c7c−27.8%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c5c+1.0%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 65c1.0¢ spread · 4.4k/25.0k within 5¢polymarketYES65c22c−66.7%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 26c1.0¢ spread · 1371.7k/100.1k within 5¢polymarketYES26c12c−54.9%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?polymarket · YES · entry 69cpolymarketYES69c31c−55.8%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c0.1¢ spread · 89.6k/46.3k within 5¢polymarketYES5c3c−32.2%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 12c1.0¢ spread · 5.9k/11.2k within 5¢polymarketYES12c10c−17.4%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 10c2.0¢ spread · 49.6k/5.9k within 5¢polymarketYES10c10c+5.3%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 4c1.0¢ spread · 114.3k/3.7k within 5¢polymarketYES4c5c+5.6%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlaypolymarket · YES · entry 10c1.0¢ spread · 7.7k/4.8k within 5¢polymarketYES10c9c−10.5%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 8c1.0¢ spread · 12.4k/109 within 5¢polymarketYES8c7c−13.3%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?polymarket · NO · entry 83c32 sessions stalepolymarketNO83c83c0.0%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 22c32 sessions stalepolymarketYES22c22c0.0%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- 17.50
- Band
- Very low
- 35d Range
- 1770
- Percentile
- 17th
- 7d Change
- +0.4
- Volatility
- 9.6 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 31
- Effective N
- 7.3
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 31 P
- Method
- v3
- Basket
- 31/36
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×1.0870
Daily close
35d published · interactive35 published close(s) — 0–100 (Calm → Elevated risk). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 35d published · dashed = projected · no band publishedModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 35 readings, slope -0.17/day, projection σ 11.2 pts/d widened for a 35-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
top 24 of 31 by weight · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-05) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 4 holdingsHide the remaining 4 holdings
Where these markets are covered
16 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — Odds
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? — Odds
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian
- Iran leader end of 2026? — Odds & Probability
- US military action against Cuba by...? — Odds
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? — Odds
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? — Odds
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? — Odds & Probability
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? — Odds & Probability
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? — Odds
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Odds
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? — Odds & Probability
- NATO x Russia military clash by...? — Odds & Probability
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
How does the world order hold?
Cooperation holdsThe world fragmentsDo the alliances hold the line?
Blocs consolidateAlliances fray
WGRI · at a glance
- What it is
- The fear gauge for geopolitics — a VIX for war risk.
- High vs low
- Higher = more conflict/escalation risk priced into markets. Lower = calmer.
- Who cares
- Risk desks, foreign-affairs reporters, and anyone tracking whether the world is heating up or cooling down.
Embed this score
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[](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/geopolitical-risk)<a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/geopolitical-risk"><img src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/geopolitical-risk/badge" alt="WGRI — WET Index Score" /></a><iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/indices/geopolitical-risk" width="340" height="170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="WGRI — WET Index Score" loading="lazy"></iframe>Quote this index
free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 5, 2026, the W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index (WGRI) prints a WET Index Score of 17.2/100 (Very low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.