Superseded · read WET Implied (Tier A desk) instead
The desk publishes a stronger construction of this same subject and stands behind that one. This reading keeps its page and its full dated history; what it has lost is its place on the board, so that one subject does not arrive at a reader as two competing current indices. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It does not return as a second reading of a subject the desk already publishes; the successor named here is the current one. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Recession Odds Index
v5SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 8, 2026 · last moved Sep 8, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Soft landing → Recession risk)
How much US recession risk the market is pricing, on a 0–100 scale.
Superseded — successor: WET Implied (Tier A desk). the successor tier reads growth and recession pricing in native units with an explicit horizon, not a keyword-matched 0–100 mean. This page and its full history remain published for continuity.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 885.73
- Since inception
- −11.43%
- Cost to cross
- 0.67pts
- Holdings marked
- 92.3% of 13
- 1 day
- −1.42%
- 7 day
- +1.01%
- Markets held
- 13
- Settled
- 2
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 56.5%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 35
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 13 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- US recession by end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 11c1.0¢ spread · 45.0k/6.9k within 5¢polymarketYES11c8c−28.6%19.3%Polymarket ↗
- Negative GDP growth in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c0.1¢ spread · 29.7k/661 within 5¢polymarketYES5c2c−55.0%16.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 44c1.0¢ spread · 337/677 within 5¢polymarketNO44c45c+2.3%15.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?polymarket · YES · entry 57c0.1¢ spread · 1.2k/1.2k within 5¢polymarketYES57c85c+48.6%11.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?polymarket · YES · entry 67c2.7¢ spread · 48/160 within 5¢polymarketYES67c51c−23.4%5.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?polymarket · YES · entry 6c7.6¢ spread · 9.6k/383 within 5¢polymarketYES6c9c+48.3%4.9%Polymarket ↗
- UK Recession in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14c2.0¢ spread · 13.6k/3.0k within 5¢polymarketYES14c7c−50.0%4.3%Polymarket ↗
- Yes — Recession this year?gemini · YES · entry 8c1.0¢ spread · 8.5k/3.5k within 5¢geminiYES8c6c−26.7%4.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?polymarket · YES · entry 39c31 sessions stalepolymarketYES39c25c−37.4%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 31c3.2¢ spread · 772/147 within 5¢polymarketYES31c19c−39.5%2.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?polymarket · YES · entry 52c2.0¢ spread · 1.0k/460 within 5¢polymarketYES52c45c−12.6%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?polymarket · YES · entry 28c1.0¢ spread · 807/320 within 5¢polymarketYES28c24c−17.5%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?polymarket · YES · entry 45c1.0¢ spread · 177/281 within 5¢polymarketYES45c33c−27.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- 24.30
- Band
- Low
- 30d Range
- 1324
- Percentile
- 10th
- 8d Change
- −1.4
- Volatility
- 1.5 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 16
- Effective N
- 5.0
- Top Weight
- 40%
- Venues
- 14 P · 2 G
- Method
- v5
- Basket
- 16/20
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×1.0611
Daily close
30d published · interactive30 published close(s) — 0–100 (Soft landing → Recession risk). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 18 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 30d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 30 readings, slope +0.03/day, projection σ 1.8 pts/d widened for a 30-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 16 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-08) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
4 of 16 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to this question in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Does the US dodge recession?
Recession hits within a yearThe expansion holds
WRCI · at a glance
- What it is
- The hard-landing gauge — how much US recession risk the market is pricing.
- High vs low
- Higher = markets pricing more recession / hard-landing risk. Lower = soft landing / expansion.
- Who cares
- Macro reporters, investors, and anyone reading the recession-risk odds alongside the Fed path.
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[](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/recession-odds)<a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/recession-odds"><img src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/recession-odds/badge" alt="WRCI — WET Index Score" /></a><iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/indices/recession-odds" width="340" height="170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="WRCI — WET Index Score" loading="lazy"></iframe>Quote this index
free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 8, 2026, the W.E.T. Recession Odds Index (WRCI) prints a WET Index Score of 22.8/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.