Recession Odds Index
WRCIW.E.T. Recession Odds Index
The market-implied probability of a US recession, on a 0–100 scale.
Higher = markets pricing more recession / hard-landing risk. Lower = soft landing / expansion.
History · 1 day
Computed from 2 markets (effective 1.0) · 0 Kalshi / 2 Polymarket · $1.7M vol · top holding 100%
The desk read
Published at 12.5 (Very low).
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- +0.0
US recession by end of 2026?
13% · 100% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Japan recession in 2026?
10% · 0% wt · polymarket
WRCI · at a glance
- What it is
- The hard-landing gauge — the market-implied odds of a US recession.
- High vs low
- Higher = markets pricing more recession / hard-landing risk. Lower = soft landing / expansion.
- Who cares
- Macro reporters, investors, and anyone reading the recession-risk odds alongside the Fed path.
What's in it today
The live markets feeding today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
| Market | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | polymarket | 13% | 99.8% |
| Japan recession in 2026? | polymarket | 10% | 0.2% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 23, 2026, the W.E.T. Recession Odds Index (WRCI) reads 12.5/100 (Very low), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. Recession Odds Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.