World Risk Index
WWRIW.E.T. World Risk Index
A single headline blend of the desk’s world-risk legs — the prediction-market VIX for world events.
Higher = an elevated global-risk regime priced across geopolitics, macro, and climate. Lower = calm.
History · 1 day
Computed from 3 markets (effective 2.8) · 0 Kalshi / 0 Polymarket · $0 vol · top holding 47%
The desk read
Rose 1.5 to 44.3 (Moderate), led by commodity-stress (24% leg) (new) +8.0; geopolitical-risk (47% leg) −4.3; recession-odds (29% leg) −2.2.
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- +8.0
commodity-stress (24% leg)
new component · wet
- −4.3
geopolitical-risk (47% leg)
69% · 47% wt · wet
- −2.2
recession-odds (29% leg)
13% · 29% wt · wet
WWRI · at a glance
- What it is
- The headline number — a prediction-market VIX for world events.
- High vs low
- Higher = an elevated global-risk regime priced across geopolitics, macro, and climate. Lower = calm.
- Who cares
- Anyone who wants one number for "how risky is the world right now," citable in a single sentence.
What's in it today
The live markets feeding today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
| Market | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitical-risk (47% leg) | wet | 69% | 47.1% |
| recession-odds (29% leg) | wet | 13% | 29.4% |
| commodity-stress (24% leg) | wet | 34% | 23.5% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 23, 2026, the W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) reads 44.3/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. World Risk Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.