Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →
48 behind

48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

Not listed · a composite of other index values

This reading is a weighted composite of other published W.E.T. indices — it holds no markets of its own, so it declares no universe for the current standard to hold to a subject. Its legs are each governed in their own right. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It is not waiting on a methodology. The standard governs an index’s claim over a market universe, and this one prices index values instead, so the migration that returns the other delisted indices cannot reach it as written. See the published suite →

WWRI

W.E.T. World Risk Index

v1Slate
24.10Stale · 48 closes behindLow & climbing, volatile

As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 21, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Calm → Elevated)

A single headline blend of the desk’s world-risk legs — the prediction-market VIX for world events.

Key statistics

Previous
—
Band
Low
49d Range
1841
Percentile
82th
8d Change
+1.5
Volatility
3.8 pts/d
Streak
4d up
Markets
4
Effective N
3.5
Top Weight
40%
Venues
—
Method
v1

Daily close

49d published · interactive

49 published close(s) — 0–100 (Calm → Elevated). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 49d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
01020304050now24
Projected 14d
24.30
Change
+0.20
80% band
3–46
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope +0.03/day, projection σ 4.5 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Premium
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The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

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What moved today

attribution — Premium
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Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

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Legs by weight

all 4 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different set
geopolitical-risk (40% leg)26% · 40.0%
recession-odds (25% leg)24% · 25.0%
commodity-stress (20% leg)16% · 20.0%
climate-risk (15% leg)31% · 15.0%

The view this index measures

Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 3 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.

  • Over the next year, will the major powers pull together or drift apart?

    Pull together — more deals and cooperationDrift apart — more rivalry and blocs
  • Will a new major war break out in the next 12 months?

    No — today's conflicts stay containedYes — a new major conflict starts
  • Over the next year, will NATO and other key alliances hold together?

    They hold together or grow strongerThey weaken or start to split

Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.

Turn your perspective into a portfolio →

WWRI · at a glance

What it is
The headline number — a prediction-market VIX for world events.
High vs low
Higher = an elevated global-risk regime priced across geopolitics, macro, and climate. Lower = calm.
Who cares
Anyone who wants one number for "how risky is the world right now," citable in a single sentence.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 24.1/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.