ElectionsNov 4

Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round)

Vote Percent - Flávio Bolsonaro

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14 listings in the selected Kalshi event.

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Kalshi markets14Kalshi volume39.8K contractsEvent venuesKalshiPolymarketKalshichecking coverage…

Driving Coverage

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Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead, remains tied with Bolsonaro in runoff polls

Reuters · 12h ago

Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Candidates: Lula, Bolsonaro, and Other Top Contenders

AS/COA · 4d ago

Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

Al Jazeera · 4d ago

Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead; runoff with Bolsonaro stays tight, BTG/Nexus poll shows

Yahoo News Singapore · 15h ago

Elections in Brazil: A subdued, digital campaign heightens uncertainty about the results

theconversation.com · 5d ago

Lula holds thin lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll shows

Reuters · 4d ago

Brazil election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in latest polls

Al Jazeera · 7d ago

Brazil: Meet the Candidates 2026

Americas Quarterly · 57d ago

Scanning the wire…

More market categories are available below.

Markets on this event

Venue-attributed quotes · open listing details

<2%

Will Renan Santos win less than 2% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$4.5K vol

Yes 7%No 93%

<30%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win less than 30% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$6.8K vol

Yes 2%No 98%

2-4%

Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$5.7K vol

Yes 41%No 59%

4-6%

Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$7.8K vol

Yes 36%No 64%

6-8%

Will Renan Santos win between 6% and 8% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$4.7K vol

Yes 12%No 88%

8%+

Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$97.1K vol

Yes 9%No 91%

30-33%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 30% and 33% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$6.3K vol

Yes 1%No 99%

33-36%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 33% and 36% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$6.7K vol

Yes 3%No 97%

36-39%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 36% and 39% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$12.3K vol

Yes 9%No 91%

39%+

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$59.4K vol

Yes 85%No 15%

Aldo Rebelo

Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·$144.7K vol

Yes 1%No 99%

At least 1%

Will Augusto Cury receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·5.3K contracts vol

Yes 94%No 6%

At least 1%

Will Ronaldo Caiado receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·Volume unavailable

Yes 92%No 8%

At least 1%

Will Renan Santos receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·Volume unit unavailable

Yes 94%No 6%

At least 2%

Will Augusto Cury receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·1.3K contracts vol

Yes 86%No 14%

At least 2%

Will Ronaldo Caiado receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·5.3K contracts vol

Yes 89%No 11%

At least 2%

Will Renan Santos receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·429 contracts vol

Yes 86%No 14%

At least 3%

Will Augusto Cury receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·1.4K contracts vol

Yes 94%No 6%

At least 3%

Will Ronaldo Caiado receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·2.3K contracts vol

Yes 67%No 33%

At least 3%

Will Renan Santos receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·187 contracts vol

Yes 63%No 37%

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Markets on this event

Venue-attributed quotes · open listing details

At least 35%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·12.8K contracts vol

Yes 88%No 12%

At least 39%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 39% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·8.5K contracts vol

Yes 84%No 16%

At least 37%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 37% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·4.3K contracts vol

Yes 16%No 84%

At least 33%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 33% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·4.1K contracts vol

Yes 89%No 11%

At least 42%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·3.1K contracts vol

Yes 52%No 48%

At least 29%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 29% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·2.8K contracts vol

Yes 95%No 5%

At least 47%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 47% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·2.4K contracts vol

Yes 30%No 70%

At least 21%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·1.5K contracts vol

Yes 99%No 1%

At least 26%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·301 contracts vol

Yes 95%No 5%

At least 31%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 31% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·114 contracts vol

Yes 93%No 7%

At least 50%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·Volume unavailable

Yes 3%No 97%

At least 52%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·Volume unavailable

Yes 2%No 98%

At least 54%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·Volume unavailable

Yes 2%No 98%

At least 56%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 01:41 UTC·Volume unavailable

Yes 2%No 98%

Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round)

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Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

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Evidence

Markets on this event

Evidence

WET Index relationship

Anchor research

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Official — venue settlement rules