Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

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The Market Read

11 listings in the selected Polymarket event.

No event-level probability, favorite, or “tight race” is inferred across these propositions. Use the listing table for each venue’s exact question and observation.

Polymarket markets11Polymarket volume$674.7KEvent venuesPolymarketchecking coverage…

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Markets on this event

Venue-attributed quotes · open listing details

Outcomes

7Polymarket

Lula da Silva <5%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC·$98.1K vol

Lula da Silva 5-10%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC·$79.4K vol

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC·$68.3K vol

Lula da Silva 10-15%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC·$58.8K vol

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC·$50.7K vol

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC·$35.3K vol

Lula da Silva 15%+

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC·$28.2K vol

Candidates

4Polymarket

Renan Santos Victory

Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC·$223.1K vol

Other

Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC·$12K vol

Tarcisio de Freitas Victory

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC·$10.7K vol

Ratinho Júnior Victory

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC·$10.1K vol

Evidence

Stored reads · labeled by measure

Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Evidence

Stored reads · labeled by measure

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-09-29 00:20 UTC: 11 listing keys checked against 1581 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

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The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Datarelated measurement

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2026Electionpresident · brazilevent identity
2026-10-05 03:59 UTCPolymarket contracts closevenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Market

Refused · no-source

no stored capture for this event yet

Availability details

Measured 2026-09-29 03:14 UTC: no odds-single-listing/v3 rows for polymarket:brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory since 2026-09-22

Retires when the odds capture writes a row for this event (it covers the live markets directory only, change-gated hourly)

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all v…
Full text
alid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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