ElectionsNov 4

Brazil presidential election: 5th place (1st round)

On Oct 4, 2026

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The Market Read

13 listings in the selected Kalshi event.

No event-level probability, favorite, or “tight race” is inferred across these propositions. Use the listing table for each venue’s exact question and observation.

Kalshi markets13Kalshi volume69.3K contractsEvent venuesKalshiPolymarketKalshichecking coverage…

Driving Coverage

Open the Newsroom →

Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead, remains tied with Bolsonaro in runoff polls

Reuters · 13h ago

One in Five Brazilians May Not Vote Sunday for the Presidential Elections. Why Abstention Keeps Climbing

Latin Times · 8h ago

Brazil's 2022 Map: Lula's Northeast, Bolsonaro's South, and Four Toss-Up States to Watch Sunday

Latin Times · 3h ago

Brazil: Meet the Candidates 2026

Americas Quarterly · 57d ago

Brazil: Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Five Points in Presidential Poll

teleSUR English · 4d ago

Lula's Camp Leads Just 1 of Brazil's 3 Biggest Governor Races

Latin Times · 7h ago

Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro, Lula tied in runoff scenario, Atlas poll shows

Reuters · 12d ago

Lula Has 38%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33% in First Round, Datafolha Shows; President and Senator in Technical Tie in Runoff

Folha de S.Paulo · 25d ago

Scanning the wire…

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Aligned outcomes share one row. Each quote retains its venue and observation time. NO marks the opposite contract side; measurement, cutoff, settlement rules and fees can differ.

Candidates

10Kalshi · Polymarket

Renan Santos

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.2%03:11 UTCPolymarket0.1%03:11 UTC

Tarcísio de Freitas

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.2%03:11 UTCPolymarket0.1%03:11 UTC

Augusto Cury

Will Augusto Cury win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 03:11 UTC·194 contracts vol

Brazil presidential election: 5th place (1st round)

Driving Coverage

Markets on this event

Candidates

Outcomes

Markets on this event

Evidence

WET Index relationship

Anchor research

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Official — venue settlement rules

Evidence

Markets on this event

Candidates

Outcomes

Evidence

WET Index relationship

Anchor research

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Official — venue settlement rules