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Brazil presidential election: first round winner?

Brazilian presidential election

Live board · a full analysis page publishes if this event qualifies for daily coverage.

The Market Read

8 listings in the selected Kalshi event.

No event-level probability, favorite, or “tight race” is inferred across these propositions. Use the listing table for each venue’s exact question and observation.

Kalshi markets8Kalshi volume223.8K contractsEvent venuesKalshiPolymarketKalshichecking coverage…

Driving Coverage

Open the Newsroom →

Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead, remains tied with Bolsonaro in runoff polls

Reuters · 11h ago

Brazil’s presidential election is more than just another polarized contest

Chatham House · 12h ago

Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Candidates: Lula, Bolsonaro, and Other Top Contenders

AS/COA · 4d ago

Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

Al Jazeera · 4d ago

Elections in Brazil: A subdued, digital campaign heightens uncertainty about the results

theconversation.com · 5d ago

Lula holds thin lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll shows

Reuters · 4d ago

Brazil: Meet the Candidates 2026

Americas Quarterly · 57d ago

Lula maintains lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election: Poll

Anadolu Ajansı · 17d ago

Scanning the wire…

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Markets on this event

One outcome · all venue odds · open listing details

Aligned outcomes share one row. Each quote retains its venue and observation time. NO marks the opposite contract side; measurement, cutoff, settlement rules and fees can differ.

Candidates

10Kalshi · Polymarket

Renan Santos

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%00:54 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:54 UTC

Tarcísio de Freitas

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.3%00:54 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:54 UTC

Augusto Cury

Will Augusto Cury win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 00:54 UTC·194 contracts vol

Brazil presidential election: first round winner?

Driving Coverage

Markets on this event

Candidates

Outcomes

Markets on this event

Evidence

WET Index relationship

Anchor research

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Official — venue settlement rules

Evidence

Evidence

WET Index relationship

Anchor research

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Official — venue settlement rules

Markets on this event

Candidates

Outcomes