ElectionsNov 4

Brazil presidential election: 4th place (1st round)

On Oct 4, 2026

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The Market Read

13 listings in the selected Kalshi event.

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Kalshi markets13Kalshi volume49K contractsEvent venuesKalshiPolymarketKalshichecking coverage…

Driving Coverage

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Brazil's 2022 Map: Lula's Northeast, Bolsonaro's South, and Four Toss-Up States to Watch Sunday

Latin Times · 3h ago

Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead; runoff with Bolsonaro stays tight, BTG/Nexus poll shows

Yahoo News Singapore · 15h ago

How Brazilians view their country ahead of 2026 elections

Pew Research Center · 7d ago

Democratic lawmakers accuse Trump administration of interference in Brazilian elections

The Guardian · 4d ago

Elections in Brazil: A subdued, digital campaign heightens uncertainty about the results

The Conversation · 5d ago

Brazil's Lula holds lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of election, Datafolha poll shows

Reuters · 12d ago

Brazil election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in latest polls

Al Jazeera · 7d ago

Brazil's 2026 Elections: Timeline and Fast Facts

AS/COA · 61d ago

Scanning the wire…

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Candidates

10Kalshi · Polymarket

Renan Santos

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.4%02:30 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:30 UTC

Tarcísio de Freitas

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.3%02:30 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:30 UTC

Augusto Cury

Will Augusto Cury win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:30 UTC·194 contracts vol

Brazil presidential election: 4th place (1st round)

Driving Coverage

Markets on this event

Candidates

Outcomes

Markets on this event

Evidence

WET Index relationship

Anchor research

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Official — venue settlement rules

Evidence

Markets on this event

Candidates

Outcomes

Evidence

WET Index relationship

Anchor research

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Official — venue settlement rules