Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

As-of time not recorded · unknown

1. 2026Electionpresident · brazilevent identity
2. 2027-10-04 14:00 UTCKalshi contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Kalshi

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is Flávio Bolsonaro's share of the valid votes cast in the first round, calculated as votes received divided by total valid votes cast, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided by the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions in the Contract, resolution uses certified official results from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, …

Full text

not preliminary results. Invalid, spoiled, blank, and rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.

Recognized settlement source

not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)

Venue listing