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Topic
The most-traded Awards Season market right now: "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — Odds & Probability" — a 11% implied probability of Yulia Navalnaya on Polymarket, as of July 21, 2026.
Oscars, Grammys, Ballon d’Or, Nobel — who takes the trophy, as a probability.
2
Live markets
$42.1M
Tracked volume
2
Settled archives
LIVE · NOW
ARCHIVE
Final pre-close reads, frozen as permanent archives — see the full settled markets archive.
FAQ
The most-traded live Awards Season market is "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — Odds & Probability", where the market implies a 11% chance of Yulia Navalnaya on Polymarket. W.E.T. tracks 2 live Awards Season markets in total.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated US exchange) and Polymarket (crypto-native). W.E.T. aggregates both books in one place — implied probability, volume, and the cross-venue gap when the same market trades on both — as data, not advice.
No. Implied probability is a live market price — what traders are collectively paying — not a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. Implied probabilities are live market prices, not forecasts or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.