Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated October 12, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (October 12, 2026) was a 13% implied probability for Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms on Polymarket, with $24.4M in venue-reported volume.
This market is a constituent of theWorld Uncertainty— the published W.E.T. index it helps price.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms — market favorite
Polymarket · $24.4M reported volume
13%
Implied
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled October 12, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | Polymarket | 13% | $24.3K |
Save the Children | Polymarket | 10% | $9.9K |
Yulia Navalnaya | Polymarket | 8% | $299.6K |
UNRWA | Polymarket | 5% | $2.1M |
International Court of Justice | Polymarket | 5% | $916.5K |
Committee to Protect Journalists | Polymarket | 4% | $6.5K |
Chow Hang-tung | Polymarket | 3% | $14.2K |
Donald Trump | Polymarket | 2% | $5M |
Volodymyr Zelenskyy | Polymarket | 2% | $825.3K |
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | Polymarket | 2% | $790.8K |
Greta Thunberg | Polymarket | 1% | $1.5M |
Xi Jinping | Polymarket | 1% | $1.4M |
Charlie Kirk | Polymarket | 1% | $1.3M |
Ahmed al-Sharaa | Polymarket | 1% | $1.3M |
Elon Musk | Polymarket | 1% | $1.2M |
Mohammed bin Salman | Polymarket | 1% | $1.2M |
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | Polymarket | 1% | $1.1M |
Vladimir Putin | Polymarket | 1% | $922.6K |
Khaled Mashal | Polymarket | 1% | $880.9K |
Julian Assange | Polymarket | 1% | $857.3K |
Pope Leo XIV | Polymarket | 1% | $823.6K |
Benjamin Netanyahu | Polymarket | 1% | $712.4K |
Narendra Modi | Polymarket | 1% | $689.3K |
António Guterres | Polymarket | 1% | $642.2K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence is keyed on the first 16 of 24 keyable listings on this snapshot (the route's per-request cap); the rest were not read.
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 58/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $24.4M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 24 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 5/15 | 3 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 13% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 15% at the start of coverage to 13% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 13% implied probability for Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms on Polymarket.
The market's final read
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms closed as the narrow leader of a wide field, at 13%. The attributed event snapshot reports $24.4M in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 3 days: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms opened our coverage at 15%, ranged between 13% and 15%, and closed at 13%. Implied probability is the attributed venue listing's price read as a percentage. It repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Entertainment odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026?
The market closed with Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 13% implied probability on Polymarket. That was W.E.T.'s final attributed listing observation before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 13% for Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
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