Oscars 2027: Best Sound Nominations — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated November 14, 2026
As of November 14, 2026, the prediction market implies a 91% chance of Project Hail Mary on Polymarket, with $83.6K in venue-reported volume.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Project Hail Mary — market favorite
Polymarket · $83.6K reported volume
91%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Oscars 2027
11 categories priced
Still contested
9
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Best Animated Short Film Nominations
Best Animated Short Film Nominations
Contested- With Tapes and Toasts in the Car53%
- Paper Trail53%
- Dog Alone47%
- What We Leave Behind47%
- God is Shy40%
- Because Today is Saturday30%
+0 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Best Actor Nominations
Contested- John Malkovich94%
- Matt Damon94%
- Andrew Scott82%
- Tom Cruise51%
- Ryan Gosling43%
- Anthony Ippolito43%
+0 pt margin · 19 nominees · 13 more
Best Sound Nominations
Contested- Project Hail Mary91%
- The Odyssey88%
- Dune: Part Three86%
- The Black Ball63%
- Disclosure Day39%
- Godzilla Minus Zero38%
+3 pt margin · 14 nominees · 8 more
Best Costume Design Nominations
Contested- The Odyssey87%
- The Black Ball84%
- Sense and Sensibility72%
- Dune: Part Three66%
- Werwulf51%
- The Devil Wears Prada 240%
+3 pt margin · 12 nominees · 6 more
Best Production Design Nominations
Contested- The Odyssey88%
- Project Hail Mary84%
- Dune: Part Three83%
- The Black Ball75%
- Werwulf73%
- Digger64%
+4 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Best Original Screenplay Nominations
Contested- The Debut95%
- Wild Horse Nine90%
- Club Kid59%
- Obsession42%
- Fjord41%
- Elsinore39%
+5 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Supporting Actress Nominations
Contested- Anne Hathaway93%
- Penélope Cruz84%
- Samantha Morton73%
- Tao Okamoto63%
- Amanda Seyfried59%
- Kate O'Flynn47%
+9 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Documentary Feature Film Nominations
Contested- NAZA96%
- Once Upon a Time in Harlem86%
- You Can See Everything74%
- American Doctor74%
- Nuisance Bear41%
- 14th38%
+10 pt margin · 10 nominees · 4 more
Best Supporting Actor Nominations
Contested- Paul Giamatti87%
- Sam Rockwell77%
- Andrew Garfield71%
- John Leguizamo71%
- Guitarricadelafuente63%
- Edward Norton52%
+10 pt margin · 24 nominees · 18 more
Best Original Score Nominations
Clear favourite- The Odyssey95%
- Disclosure Day79%
- The Black Ball77%
- Dune: Part Three71%
- Project Hail Mary61%
- You Can See Everything40%
+16 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Best Original Song Nominations
Clear favourite- La Nieve - The Black Ball92%
- This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut76%
- I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 563%
- When I'm Home - The Odyssey49%
- How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad32%
- By Any Means - By Any Means32%
+16 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of November 14, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Project Hail Mary | Polymarket | 91% | $2.6K |
The Odyssey | Polymarket | 88% | $7.3K |
Dune: Part Three | Polymarket | 86% | $9.3K |
The Black Ball | Polymarket | 63% | $10.6K |
Disclosure Day | Polymarket | 39% | $9 |
Godzilla Minus Zero | Polymarket | 38% | $1.8K |
Michael | Polymarket | 31% | $8.3K |
Whalefall | Polymarket | 27% | $2.3K |
The Mosquito Bowl | Polymarket | 18% | $1.8K |
Behemoth! | Polymarket | 17% | $2.1K |
Werwulf | Polymarket | 14% | $8.3K |
The End of Oak Street | Polymarket | 12% | $9.5K |
Digger | Polymarket | 6% | $16K |
The Debut | Polymarket | 3% | $3.8K |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the November 14, 2026 snapshot · 44/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 19/30 | $83.6K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 14 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
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Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Project Hail Mary at 91% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $84K in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Saturday, November 14 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Oscars 2027: Best Sound Nominations at 91% implied probability on Polymarket as of Saturday, November 14. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 14 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $84K in venue-native event volume. Project Hail Mary leads at 91%, a strong favorite, ahead of The Odyssey at 88%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 91% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 91¢ implies a 91% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Saturday, November 14; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Entertainment market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Entertainment odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Oscars 2027: Best Sound Nominations?
As of Saturday, November 14, Polymarket price Project Hail Mary at 91% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Project Hail Mary?
The prediction market implies a 91% chance of Project Hail Mary on Polymarket as of Saturday, November 14 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/oscars-2027-best-sound-nominations-odds-2027-03-15?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=oscars-2027-best-sound-nominations-odds-2027-03-15">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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