Fight Night: Barbosa vs Kuse: Odds
By Corbin King · Updated August 19, 2026
As of August 19, 2026, the prediction market implies a 89% chance of Marcio Barbosa — Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 87%, 2 pts apart, on $30.9K in traded volume.
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
Marcio Barbosa — market favorite
Kalshi + Polymarket · $30.9K traded
89%
Implied
Kalshi
89%
Polymarket
87%
Live market
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Prices move continuously — open Kalshi for the current line.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate — where it is still open
Ceremony
Fight Night
13 categories priced
Still contested
9
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Young vs Dorsainvil: Odds
Young vs Dorsainvil: Odds
Contested- Gauge Young vs. Stan Dorsainvil56%
- Gauge Young56%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds51%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds51%
- Young to win by KO/TKO?50%
- Dorsainvil to win by KO/TKO?50%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Judice vs Chaves: Odds
Contested- Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves84%
- Carli Judice84%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds71%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds63%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?57%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds57%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Nzechukwu vs Gaziev: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds61%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?60%
- Shamil Gaziev56%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds54%
- Fight to Go the Distance?48%
- Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev46%
+1 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Barbosa vs Kuse: Odds
Contested- Marcio Barbosa89%
- Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse87%
- Barbosa to win by KO/TKO?69%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?50%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds50%
- Fight to Go the Distance?47%
+2 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Chatman vs Wint: Odds
Contested- Anthony Wint90%
- Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman88%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?66%
- Wint to win by KO/TKO?63%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds50%
- Fight won by submission?30%
+2 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Hernandez vs Rodrigues: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds66%
- Anthony Hernandez63%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds63%
- Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues61%
- Rodrigues to win by KO/TKO?56%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds51%
+3 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Padilla vs Haqparast: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds74%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds68%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds62%
- Nasrat Haqparast52%
- Fight to Go the Distance?51%
- Haqparast to win by KO/TKO?50%
+6 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Spivac vs Petrino: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds72%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds65%
- Vitor Petrino61%
- Petrino to win by KO/TKO?49%
- Fight to Go the Distance?49%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds47%
+7 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Schultz vs McVey: Odds
Contested- Jackson McVey62%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds51%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?50%
- Schultz to win by KO/TKO?48%
- Fight to Go the Distance?47%
- Fight won by submission?47%
+11 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Emmers vs Douglas: Odds
Clear favourite- Lerryan Douglas79%
- Douglas to win by KO/TKO?62%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds60%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?50%
- Fight to Go the Distance?49%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds42%
+17 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Dyer vs Reed: Odds
Clear favourite- Shanelle Dyer88%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds63%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds54%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?50%
- Reed to win by KO/TKO?48%
- Fight to Go the Distance?48%
+25 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Sutherland vs Montanha Da Silva: Odds
Clear favourite- Louie Sutherland65%
- Jose Montanha Da Silva37%
+28 pt margin · 2 nominees
Elkins vs Delvalle: Odds
Decided- Yadier Delvalle88%
- Darren Elkins13%
+75 pt margin · 2 nominees
Every category decided the same night, tightest race first. The lower bar is the runner-up — the gap between them is the margin.
Live markets — full navigation
Every market on this event, streaming — filter by type, tap any row for the live Kalshi & Polymarket price.
Odds — full market snapshotas of August 19, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse Moneyline | Polymarket | 87% | $198 |
Barbosa to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 69% | $235 |
Kuse to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 27% | — |
Marcio Barbosa | Kalshi | 89% | $7.7K |
Fight won by KO/TKO? | Polymarket | 50% | — |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 50% | — |
Fight to Go the Distance? | Polymarket | 47% | — |
Fight won by submission? | Polymarket | 27% | $235 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. Odds move continuously; this is a dated snapshot — open the live venue for the current price.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the August 19, 2026 snapshot · 45/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 15/30 | $30.9K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 16/20 | Kalshi 89% vs Polymarket 87% — a 2-pt gap. Two independent order books landing close is the strongest check a price can get. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 day of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, the cross-venue gap, the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a move: the divergence scanner across every tracked market, the Index Desk, and the room where the desk argues it out.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Marcio Barbosa at 89% implied probability across Kalshi and Polymarket.
- $31K has traded across 11 markets on this event.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Wednesday, August 19 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Marcio Barbosa the favorite in Fight Night: Barbosa vs Kuse, pricing the outcome at 89% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Wednesday, August 19. Kalshi and Polymarket are priced in line with each other. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 11 tracked markets, $31K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. Marcio Barbosa leads at 89%, a strong favorite, ahead of Ryan Kuse at 12%. Kalshi and Polymarket are trading in line, which reads as a consensus price rather than an edge.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 89% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 89¢ implies a 89% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Wednesday, August 19; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi and Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fight Night: Barbosa vs Kuse?
As of Wednesday, August 19, Kalshi and Polymarket price Marcio Barbosa at 89% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Marcio Barbosa?
The prediction market implies a 89% chance of Marcio Barbosa on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Wednesday, August 19 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
Both venues list this event, so you can compare their prices directly. They are currently close, which reads as a consensus price. When two venues disagree on the same outcome, the gap itself is information.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/fight-night-barbosa-vs-kuse-odds-2026-08-23?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=fight-night-barbosa-vs-kuse-odds-2026-08-23">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.