330: Tobias vs Fernando: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated August 13, 2026
As of August 13, 2026, the prediction market implies a 74% chance of Lucas Fernando — Kalshi 74%, Polymarket 72%, 2 pts apart, on $37.9K in traded volume.
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
Lucas Fernando — market favorite
Kalshi + Polymarket · $37.9K traded
74%
Implied
Kalshi
74%
Polymarket
72%
Live market
View the live market on Kalshi
Prices move continuously — open Kalshi for the current line.
The slate — where it is still open
Ceremony
330
8 categories priced
Still contested
7
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Dern vs Robertson: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Dern vs Robertson: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds79%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds79%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds74%
- Mackenzie Dern66%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds66%
- Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson65%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Johnson vs McConico: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- Donte Johnson72%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds72%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds59%
- Johnson to win by KO/TKO?57%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?41%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds41%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Tobias vs Fernando: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- Lucas Fernando74%
- Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias72%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds71%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?58%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds57%
- Fernando to win by KO/TKO?50%
+2 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Turner vs Fernandes: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds63%
- Jalin Turner60%
- Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes59%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds46%
- Kaue Fernandes42%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?40%
+3 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Magny vs Brahimaj: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds65%
- Ramiz Brahimaj56%
- Fight won by submission?54%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds48%
- Fight to Go the Distance?48%
- Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj45%
+9 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Makhachev vs Garry: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds91%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds82%
- Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry77%
- Islam Makhachev76%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds73%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds64%
+9 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Luque vs Gore: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds73%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds60%
- Tresean Gore52%
- Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore50%
- Vicente Luque50%
- Fight to Go the Distance?50%
+13 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Barboza vs Ribovics: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Clear favourite- Esteban Ribovics84%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds69%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?62%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds55%
- Ribovics to win by KO/TKO?45%
- Fight to Go the Distance?40%
+15 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Every category decided the same night, tightest race first. The lower bar is the runner-up — the gap between them is the margin.
Live markets — full navigation
Every market on this event, streaming — filter by type, tap any row for the live Kalshi & Polymarket price.
Odds — full market snapshotas of August 13, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias Moneyline | Polymarket | 72% | $7.3K |
Fernando to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 50% | — |
Tobias to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 36% | — |
Lucas Fernando | Kalshi | 74% | $17.4K |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 71% | — |
Fight won by KO/TKO? | Polymarket | 58% | — |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 57% | — |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 45% | $2.7K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. Odds move continuously; this is a dated snapshot — open the live venue for the current price.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the August 13, 2026 snapshot · 46/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 16/30 | $37.9K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 16/20 | Kalshi 74% vs Polymarket 72% — a 2-pt gap. Two independent order books landing close is the strongest check a price can get. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 day of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, the cross-venue gap, the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a move: the divergence scanner across every tracked market, the Index Desk, and the room where the desk argues it out.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Lucas Fernando at 74% implied probability across Kalshi and Polymarket.
- $38K has traded across 11 markets on this event.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Thursday, August 13 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Lucas Fernando the favorite in 330: Tobias vs Fernando, pricing the outcome at 74% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Thursday, August 13. Kalshi and Polymarket are priced in line with each other. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 11 tracked markets, $38K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. Lucas Fernando leads at 74%, a strong favorite, ahead of Rafael Tobias at 28%. Kalshi and Polymarket are trading in line, which reads as a consensus price rather than an edge.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 74% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 74¢ implies a 74% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Thursday, August 13; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi and Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win 330: Tobias vs Fernando?
As of Thursday, August 13, Kalshi and Polymarket price Lucas Fernando at 74% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Lucas Fernando?
The prediction market implies a 74% chance of Lucas Fernando on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Thursday, August 13 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
Both venues list this event, so you can compare their prices directly. They are currently close, which reads as a consensus price. When two venues disagree on the same outcome, the gap itself is information.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/330-tobias-vs-fernando-odds-2026-08-16?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=330-tobias-vs-fernando-odds-2026-08-16">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.