330: Dern vs Robertson: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated August 10, 2026
As of August 10, 2026, the prediction market implies a 69% chance of Mackenzie Dern — Kalshi 69%, Polymarket 70%, 1 pt apart, on $46K in traded volume.
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
Mackenzie Dern — market favorite
Kalshi + Polymarket · $46K traded
69%
Implied
Kalshi
69%
Polymarket
70%
Live market
View the live market on Kalshi
Prices move continuously — open Kalshi for the current line.
The slate — where it is still open
Ceremony
330
6 categories priced
Still contested
4
inside 15 points
Tightest
+1
Dern vs Robertson: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Dern vs Robertson: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson70%
- Mackenzie Dern69%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds68%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds57%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds56%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds55%
+1 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Turner vs Fernandes: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- Jalin Turner62%
- Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes61%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds51%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds49%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds45%
- Turner to win by KO/TKO?44%
+1 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Makhachev vs Garry: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry76%
- Islam Makhachev75%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds75%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds71%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds70%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds67%
+1 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Luque vs Gore: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- O/U 1.5 Rounds61%
- Tresean Gore58%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds51%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds50%
- Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore44%
- Luque to win by KO/TKO?44%
+3 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Johnson vs McConico: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Clear favourite- Donte Johnson68%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds51%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds49%
- McConico to win by KO/TKO?44%
- Johnson to win by KO/TKO?44%
- Fight to Go the Distance?44%
+17 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Barboza vs Ribovics: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Clear favourite- Esteban Ribovics83%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds51%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds51%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds49%
- Barboza to win by KO/TKO?44%
- Ribovics to win by KO/TKO?44%
+32 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Every category decided the same night, tightest race first. The lower bar is the runner-up — the gap between them is the margin.
Live markets — full navigation
Every market on this event, streaming — filter by type, tap any row for the live Kalshi & Polymarket price.
Odds — full market snapshotas of August 10, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson Moneyline | Polymarket | 70% | $4.7K |
Dern to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 44% | — |
Robertson to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 44% | — |
Mackenzie Dern | Kalshi | 69% | $27.4K |
O/U 3.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 68% | — |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 57% | $1 |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 56% | — |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 55% | — |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. Odds move continuously; this is a dated snapshot — open the live venue for the current price.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the August 10, 2026 snapshot · 49/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 17/30 | $46K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 18/20 | Kalshi 69% vs Polymarket 70% — a 1-pt gap. Two independent order books landing close is the strongest check a price can get. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 day of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, the cross-venue gap, the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a move: the divergence scanner across every tracked market, the Index Desk, and the room where the desk argues it out.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Mackenzie Dern at 69% implied probability across Kalshi and Polymarket.
- $46K has traded across 13 markets on this event.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Monday, August 10 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Mackenzie Dern the favorite in 330: Dern vs Robertson, pricing the outcome at 69% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Monday, August 10. Kalshi and Polymarket are priced in line with each other. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 13 tracked markets, $46K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. Mackenzie Dern leads at 69%, a strong favorite, ahead of Gillian Robertson at 32%. Kalshi and Polymarket are trading in line, which reads as a consensus price rather than an edge.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 69% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 69¢ implies a 69% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Monday, August 10; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi and Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win 330: Dern vs Robertson?
As of Monday, August 10, Kalshi and Polymarket price Mackenzie Dern at 69% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Mackenzie Dern?
The prediction market implies a 69% chance of Mackenzie Dern on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Monday, August 10 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
Both venues list this event, so you can compare their prices directly. They are currently close, which reads as a consensus price. When two venues disagree on the same outcome, the gap itself is information.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/330-dern-vs-robertson-odds-2026-08-16?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=330-dern-vs-robertson-odds-2026-08-16">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.