330: Magny vs Brahimaj: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated August 11, 2026
As of August 11, 2026, the prediction market implies a 56% chance of Ramiz Brahimaj — Kalshi 56%, Polymarket 53%, 3 pts apart, on $56K in traded volume.
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
Ramiz Brahimaj — market favorite
Kalshi + Polymarket · $56K traded
56%
Implied
Kalshi
56%
Polymarket
53%
Cross-venue gap: Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 3 pts on this outcome — the divergence is the edge. See every gap →
Live market
View the live market on Kalshi
Prices move continuously — open Kalshi for the current line.
The slate — where it is still open
Ceremony
330
7 categories priced
Still contested
5
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Magny vs Brahimaj: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Magny vs Brahimaj: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- Ramiz Brahimaj56%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds56%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds53%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds52%
- Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj47%
- Neil Magny46%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Turner vs Fernandes: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes60%
- Jalin Turner60%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds51%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?45%
- Fight won by submission?45%
- Turner to win by KO/TKO?44%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Dern vs Robertson: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- O/U 3.5 Rounds71%
- Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson67%
- Mackenzie Dern67%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds67%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds65%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds62%
+4 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Luque vs Gore: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- O/U 1.5 Rounds62%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds55%
- Tresean Gore54%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds49%
- Vicente Luque47%
- Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore46%
+7 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Johnson vs McConico: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Contested- Donte Johnson68%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds56%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds52%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds49%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?45%
- McConico to win by KO/TKO?44%
+12 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Makhachev vs Garry: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds98%
- Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry76%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds76%
- Islam Makhachev75%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds72%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds71%
+22 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Barboza vs Ribovics: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Clear favourite- Esteban Ribovics84%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds52%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds50%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds45%
- Ribovics to win by KO/TKO?44%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?44%
+32 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Every category decided the same night, tightest race first. The lower bar is the runner-up — the gap between them is the margin.
Live markets — full navigation
Every market on this event, streaming — filter by type, tap any row for the live Kalshi & Polymarket price.
Odds — full market snapshotas of August 11, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj Moneyline | Polymarket | 47% | $5.9K |
Magny to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 44% | — |
Brahimaj to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 43% | — |
Ramiz Brahimaj | Kalshi | 56% | $33.8K |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 56% | $1 |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 53% | — |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 52% | — |
Neil Magny | Kalshi | 46% | $16.2K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. Odds move continuously; this is a dated snapshot — open the live venue for the current price.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the August 11, 2026 snapshot · 45/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 17/30 | $56K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 14/20 | Kalshi 56% vs Polymarket 53% — a 3-pt gap. Two independent order books landing close is the strongest check a price can get. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 day of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, the cross-venue gap, the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a move: the divergence scanner across every tracked market, the Index Desk, and the room where the desk argues it out.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Ramiz Brahimaj at 56% implied probability across Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The two venues disagree by 3 points on the favorite — a cross-venue divergence worth watching.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Tuesday, August 11 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Ramiz Brahimaj the favorite in 330: Magny vs Brahimaj, pricing the outcome at 56% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday, August 11. Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 3 pts on the favorite — that gap is the cross-venue read. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 11 tracked markets, $56K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. Ramiz Brahimaj leads at 56%, a clear favorite, ahead of Neil Magny at 46%. The two venues disagree by 3 points on the favorite — a cross-venue divergence that can reflect different liquidity, fees, or resolution rules.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 56% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 56¢ implies a 56% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Tuesday, August 11; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi and Polymarket for the current line, and compare the two venues before assuming the gap is free money.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win 330: Magny vs Brahimaj?
As of Tuesday, August 11, Kalshi and Polymarket price Ramiz Brahimaj at 56% implied probability, though Kalshi and Polymarket differ by 3 points. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Ramiz Brahimaj?
The prediction market implies a 56% chance of Ramiz Brahimaj on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday, August 11 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
Both venues list this event, so you can compare their prices directly. Right now they diverge by 3 points, which can reflect different liquidity, fees, or resolution rules. When two venues disagree on the same outcome, the gap itself is information.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
What Is a Prediction Market? How Event Trading Works
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/330-magny-vs-brahimaj-odds-2026-08-16?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=330-magny-vs-brahimaj-odds-2026-08-16">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.