330: Makhachev vs Garry: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated August 18, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (August 18, 2026) was a 76% implied probability for Islam Makhachev on Kalshi.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Islam Makhachev — market favorite
Kalshi
76%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
330
8 categories priced
Still contested
5
inside 15 points
Tightest
+7
Barboza vs Ribovics: Prediction, Odds & Probability
Barboza vs Ribovics: Prediction, Odds & Probabilitysettled
Contested- Esteban Ribovics86%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds79%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?65%
- Ribovics to win by KO/TKO?61%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds56%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds40%
+7 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Johnson vs McConico: Prediction, Odds & Probabilitysettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds82%
- Donte Johnson75%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds60%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?56%
- Johnson to win by KO/TKO?49%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds38%
+7 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Makhachev vs Garry: Prediction, Odds & Probabilitysettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds93%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds86%
- Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry77%
- Islam Makhachev76%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds73%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds66%
+7 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Tobias vs Fernando: Prediction, Odds & Probabilitysettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds81%
- Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias72%
- Lucas Fernando72%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds58%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?52%
- Fernando to win by KO/TKO?46%
+9 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Dern vs Robertson: Prediction, Odds & Probabilitysettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds93%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds82%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds72%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds66%
- Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson65%
- Mackenzie Dern65%
+11 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Turner vs Fernandes: Prediction, Odds & Probabilitysettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds79%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?59%
- Jalin Turner53%
- Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes51%
- Kaue Fernandes49%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds48%
+20 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Luque vs Gore: Prediction, Odds & Probabilitysettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds83%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds61%
- Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore51%
- Tresean Gore51%
- Vicente Luque49%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds42%
+22 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Magny vs Brahimaj: Prediction, Odds & Probabilitysettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds83%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds59%
- Ramiz Brahimaj58%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds45%
- Fight won by submission?44%
- Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj43%
+24 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 18, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry Moneyline | Polymarket | 77% | $1.5M |
Makhachev to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 10% | $10.9K |
Machado Garry to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 9% | $3.9K |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 93% | $475 |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 86% | $5 |
Islam Makhachev | Kalshi | 76% | 1.6M contracts |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 73% | $11 |
O/U 3.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 66% | $785 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 30/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 10/30 | The event combines unlike venue-native volume units. W.E.T. does not add contracts to dollars, so this component remains at the documented neutral 10/30. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Islam Makhachev at 76% implied probability on Kalshi.
- The odds moved from 79% at the start of coverage to 76% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 76% implied probability for Islam Makhachev on Kalshi.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was Islam Makhachev at 76% — favored, but not a lock. Dollar volume and contract counts remain separate; W.E.T. publishes no mixed event total.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 9 days: Islam Makhachev opened our coverage at 79%, ranged between 75% and 79%, and closed at 76%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for 330: Makhachev vs Garry?
The market closed with Islam Makhachev at 76% implied probability on Kalshi. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get 330: Makhachev vs Garry right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 76% for Islam Makhachev. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/330-makhachev-vs-garry-odds-2026-08-16?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=330-makhachev-vs-garry-odds-2026-08-16">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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