Index methodology · v1
W.E.T. Macro Stress Index: methodology
A headline blend of recession, commodity, and rate-cut pressure — the macro-stress read.
US macro conditions are stressed — recession risk, commodity spikes and easing pressure priced together.
- Fewer than two composite legs live — the index reports insufficient data rather than a number (published methodology).
No defined evaluation event exists in the published methodology — this is a continuous index. Per WET-LOGIC §11.1 it is tracked for movement and never scored as a resolved forecast.
The W.E.T. Macro Stress Index is a daily 0–100 headline blend of the desk's financial-conditions legs — one number for how stressed US macro looks.
Components
It is a declared weighted mean of sibling W.E.T. indices (each already a 0–100 benchmark computed from live prices):
- 40% Recession Odds (WRCI)
- 35% Commodity Stress (WCOS)
- 25% Fed Path (WFPI) — easing pressure reads as stress (the Fed cuts when conditions weaken)
Value
The index is the weighted mean of those leg values. It reads markets only through its audited legs — a blend of benchmarks, not a forecast. On a day when a leg has no live markets, the composite is computed over the available legs with weights renormalized, so a thin leg never blanks the headline; it reports insufficient data only if fewer than two legs are live.
Publication & freshness
Recomputed daily after its legs publish; every point is appended to a permanent, citable history. The weights above are fixed and versioned — any change bumps the methodology version.
What this index is not
This is a benchmark reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast and not advice. A high value does not predict that the event happens — it reports what prediction-market traders are collectively pricing right now. Prices move continuously and can be wrong.
An accuracy record for a benchmark requires resolved outcomes accumulated over time. W.E.T. publishes this index daily with a dated, immutable history from first publication — that published series is the audit trail. Calibration analysis will ship strictly when the resolved-outcome corpus supports it, never before. See the site methodology for the same discipline applied to the W.E.T. Score.
Maintained by Corbin V King. Methodology version v1. See the live value on the index page or all W.E.T. indices.