Macro Stress Index
WMSIW.E.T. Macro Stress Index
A headline blend of recession, commodity, and rate-cut pressure — the macro-stress read.
Higher = more macro stress (recession risk + commodity spikes + easing pressure). Lower = calm.
History · 1 day
Computed from 3 markets (effective 2.9) · $0 vol · top holding 40%
Forward projection
A 14-day model extrapolation of this index's published history — a robust trend inside an 80% band. It reads the series, not the news: a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Projection begins once 7 daily readings are in (1/7 so far).
The desk read
Rose 0.5 to 20.2 (Low), led by commodity-stress (35% leg) (31→32%) +0.4.
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- +0.4
commodity-stress (35% leg)
31% → 32% · wet
- +0.0
recession-odds (40% leg)
17% · 40% wt · wet
- +0.0
fed-path (25% leg)
9% · 25% wt · wet
WMSI · at a glance
- What it is
- The financial-conditions headline — one number for US macro stress.
- High vs low
- Higher = more macro stress (recession risk + commodity spikes + easing pressure). Lower = calm.
- Who cares
- Macro reporters and investors who want a single read on US financial-conditions stress.
What's in it today
Exactly which categories and markets drive today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
| Market | Category | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| recession-odds (40% leg) | — | wet | 17% | 40.0% |
| commodity-stress (35% leg) | — | wet | 32% | 35.0% |
| fed-path (25% leg) | — | wet | 9% | 25.0% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 31, 2026, the W.E.T. Macro Stress Index (WMSI) reads 20.2/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. Macro Stress Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.