Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
Superseded · read WET Implied Fed Path (WIFP) instead
The desk publishes a stronger construction of this same subject and stands behind that one. This reading keeps its page and its full dated history; what it has lost is its place on the board, so that one subject does not arrive at a reader as two competing current indices. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It does not return while WETFED publishes this thesis family: a second row about one subject, under one name, with two version numbers counting different things, is precisely the collision the board consolidation was shipped to end. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Fed Path Index
v6SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (On hold / tightening → Easing priced)
The market-implied pressure for the Fed to ease, on a 0–100 scale.
Superseded — successor: WET Implied Fed Path (WIFP). the successor reads the meeting strips directly — an expected rate change in basis points per meeting, not a 0–100 gauge over mixed expiries. This page and its full history remain published for continuity.
No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends -36.4% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give -80.3% — a 44-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- 0.42pts
- Holdings marked
- 77.8% of 9
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 9
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 9 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 7c0.1¢ spread · 65.0k/87.7k within 5¢polymarketYES7c1c−84.6%21.9%Polymarket ↗
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 6c1.2¢ spread · 85.8k/8.7k within 5¢polymarketYES6c2c−62.5%21.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 10ckalshiYES10c6c−36.8%13.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2027 meeting? — Cut >25bpskalshi · YES · entry 8ckalshiYES8c2c−80.0%8.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c1c−77.8%4.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 6c1.0¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiYES6c6c−8.3%3.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 18c4.0¢ spread · 53.2k/8.3k within 5¢kalshiYES18c2c−91.4%2.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 14c1.0¢ spread · 1.4k/2.1k within 5¢kalshiYES14c6c−55.6%0.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 4c21 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c1c−75.6%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Very low
- 51d Range
- 115
- Percentile
- 10th
- 8d Change
- −3.7
- Volatility
- 1.9 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 11
- Effective N
- 3.8
- Top Weight
- 35%
- Venues
- 8 K · 3 P
- Method
- v6
- Basket
- 11/12
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×1.3125
Daily close
51d published · interactive51 published close(s) — 0–100 (On hold / tightening → Easing priced). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 51d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.07/day, projection σ 2.1 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 11 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
3 of 11 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
A year from now, where will US interest rates be?
Lower — the Fed keeps cuttingSame or higher — rates stay highOver the next 12 months, will prices rise faster or slower than now?
Slower — inflation keeps coolingFaster — inflation picks back up
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WFPI · at a glance
- What it is
- The easing gauge — how badly the market wants the Fed to cut.
- High vs low
- Higher = markets pricing more/near-term easing (cuts). Lower = on hold or tightening.
- Who cares
- Rates traders, macro reporters, and anyone reading the rate-cut odds ahead of an FOMC meeting.
Embed this score
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Fed Path Index (WFPI) prints a WET Index Score of 2.5/100 (Very low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.