Fed Path Index
WFPIW.E.T. Fed Path Index
The market-implied pressure for the Fed to ease, on a 0–100 scale.
Higher = markets pricing more/near-term easing (cuts). Lower = on hold or tightening.
History · 3 days
Computed from 3 markets (effective 3.0) · 0 Kalshi / 3 Polymarket · $66.1M vol · top holding 35%
The desk read
Published at 4.4 (Very low).
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- +0.0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
0% · 35% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
10% · 35% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
3% · 30% wt · polymarket
WFPI · at a glance
- What it is
- The easing gauge — how badly the market wants the Fed to cut.
- High vs low
- Higher = markets pricing more/near-term easing (cuts). Lower = on hold or tightening.
- Who cares
- Rates traders, macro reporters, and anyone reading the rate-cut odds ahead of an FOMC meeting.
What's in it today
The live markets feeding today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
| Market | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 0% | 35.0% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | polymarket | 10% | 35.0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 3% | 30.0% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 23, 2026, the W.E.T. Fed Path Index (WFPI) reads 4.4/100 (Very low), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. Fed Path Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.