Brazil Presidential Election

ElectionsSun 8:00 AM

Brazil Presidential Election

Evidence & research ↓

Live board · view the related analysis →

The Market Read

19 listings in the selected Polymarket event.

No event-level probability, favorite, or “tight race” is inferred across these propositions. Use the listing table for each venue’s exact question and observation.

Polymarket markets19Polymarket volume$156.6MEvent venuesPolymarketchecking coverage…

Driving Coverage

Open the Newsroom →

Scanning the wire…

Checking other venues. The selected venue listings are available below.

Markets on this event

Venue-attributed quotes · open listing details

Renan Santos

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$14.6M vol

Tarcisio de Freitas

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$14.1M vol

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$12.5M vol

Flávio Bolsonaro

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$12.2M vol

Ratinho Júnior

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$10.5M vol

Eduardo Bolsonaro

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$10.5M vol

Michelle Bolsonaro

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$10.4M vol

Eduardo Leite

Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$8M vol

Ronaldo Caiado

Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$7.8M vol

Fernando Haddad

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$7.7M vol

Romeu Zema

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$7.7M vol

Jair Bolsonaro

Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$7.4M vol

Geraldo Alckmin

Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$7M vol

Camilo Santana

Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$5.6M vol

Augusto Cury

Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$5.2M vol

Aldo Rebelo

Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$5M vol

Tereza Cristina

Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$4M vol

Pablo Marçal

Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$4M vol

Helder Barbalho

Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC·$2.4M vol

Evidence

Stored reads · labeled by measure

Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.

Evidence

Stored reads · labeled by measure

WET Index relationship

Marketexact basis

As of 2026-09-29 00:20 UTC · fresh

WET IndexWorld Uncertainty

Published WET record · not an observation row

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Datarelated measurement

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2026Electionpresident · brazilevent identity
2026-10-04 00:00 UTCPolymarket contracts closevenue close
2026-10-04 23:59 UTC

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Market

Refused · no-source

no stored capture for this event yet

Availability details

Measured 2026-09-29 02:29 UTC: no odds-single-listing/v3 rows for polymarket:brazil-presidential-election since 2026-09-22

Retires when the odds capture writes a row for this event (it covers the live markets directory only, change-gated hourly)

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral…
Full text
Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)
Venue listing: Find on Polymarket US

Actions