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Checking venue odds for this outcome…
All event outcomes →Venue observation · Observed 2026-09-29 01:40 UTC
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
A genuine toss-up at 48/52.
This snapshot shows the selected venue contract. Related venue evidence is shown separately when available.
Public trade activity is not available from Futuur.
Open each venue’s original listing and settlement rules.
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Refused · no-key-match
no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent
Measured 2026-09-29 00:20 UTC: one listing key checked against 1581 keyed constituent refs
Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt
Refused · not-configured
The research engine has not been activated.
Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised
As-of time not recorded · unknown
Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row
Refused · no-source
Futuur publishes no rules text through WET's feed
Measured 2026-09-29 01:40 UTC: one listing read; none carries settlement wording
Retires when the venue feed carries rules text for this listing (only Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini, Futuur and Polymarket US populate it today)
Polymarket links search the US catalog. Availability and terms may differ from the global quote.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · select venue
All event outcomes →Select a venue to see its price, chart, volume and activity below.
Polymarket quotes use its global feed. US links open Polymarket US, where availability and prices may differ.
Venue cutoffs, measurement sources and settlement rules may differ. Prices remain attributed to each contract.
Futuur · YES side
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
Venue cutoff 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · $6.1K
<p>This market will resolve based on the official winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election as declared by Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), including any required second-round runoff. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is the TSE's final official presidential result for the 2026 general election, as published on its official results portal (for example, via <a href="https://resultados.tse.jus.br">resultados.tse.jus.br</a>) or in equivalent official communications. The market may resolve as soon as the TSE first publishes a definitive winner for the office of President for the 2027–2030 term.</p> <p>If the TSE declares Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the elected President of Brazil in this 2026 election (in either the first or second round), this market will resolve to "Yes". If the 2026 presidential election is held and another candidate is officially declared the elected President for this term, this market will resolve to "No".</p> <p>If the PDS result is significantly delayed, unclear, internally contradictory, formally annulled, or not published in its usual manner, Futuur will instead look to a clear consensus among at least three major, independent news organizations (for example, Agência Brasil, Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, or leading national Brazilian outlets) on who won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, treating that consensus as the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM). Futuur's overriding priority is to resolve this market according to the commonly understood substantive outcome of who is recognized as President-elect, rather than on minor technicalities of how or where the result is displayed or temporary legal challenges that do not ultimately change the winner. Minor revisions, recounts, or interface changes on the TSE website, and similar implementation details, will not on their own prevent resolution so long as the winner is still clearly identifiable from the designated sources. Futuur is committed to a fair and transparent resolution process; if, after reasonable efforts to apply the PDS and SCM, the winner of the 2026 presidential election cannot be determined in a clear and impartial way, the market may be cancelled and all remaining open positions voided.</p>
Kalshi · YES side
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Venue cutoff 2027-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · 1.1M contracts
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket · YES side
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Venue cutoff 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · $12.5M
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).