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Topic
The most-traded AI Models & AGI market right now: "Which company has best AI model end of July 2026? — Odds" — a 99% implied probability of Anthropic on Polymarket, as of July 21, 2026.
Which lab has the best model, when AGI arrives, benchmark crowns — the AI race as a probability curve.
5
Live markets
$8.3M
Tracked volume
0
Settled archives
LIVE · NOW
Anthropic · Polymarket · $7.3M vol
Anthropic · Polymarket · $354.1K vol
Anthropic · Polymarket · $268.3K vol
Anthropic · Polymarket · $216.5K vol
Before Jan 1, 2031 · Kalshi · $65.9K vol
FAQ
The most-traded live AI Models & AGI market is "Which company has best AI model end of July 2026? — Odds", where the market implies a 99% chance of Anthropic on Polymarket. W.E.T. tracks 5 live AI Models & AGI markets in total.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated US exchange) and Polymarket (crypto-native). W.E.T. aggregates both books in one place — implied probability, volume, and the cross-venue gap when the same market trades on both — as data, not advice.
No. Implied probability is a live market price — what traders are collectively paying — not a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. Implied probabilities are live market prices, not forecasts or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.