Topic
AI Models & AGI Prediction Markets
The latest open-status AI Models & AGI snapshot: "When will any company achieve AGI? — Odds & Probability" — a captured 80% implied probability for Before Jan 1, 2030 on Kalshi; corpus through November 5, 2026.
Which lab has the best model, when AGI arrives, benchmark crowns — the AI race as a probability curve.
3
Open snapshots
$5.3M
Comparable USD vol.
13
Settled archives
OPEN · SNAPSHOT
Open-status AI Models & AGI snapshotscorpus through November 5, 2026
Priced into these indexes
W.E.T. indexes that hold markets from the AI Models & AGI board. The count is how many of this page’s contracts each one actually reads — the index is the story, these markets are its evidence.
ARCHIVE
Settled AI Models & AGI markets
Final pre-close reads, frozen as permanent archives — see the full settled markets archive.
Which company has the best AI model end of October 2026?
Final read: Google · Polymarket · $4.2M vol
Which company has the best AI Agent end of September
Final read: Anthropic · Polymarket · $124.9K vol
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model
Final read: Anthropic · Polymarket · $68.1K vol
Which company has the best AI model end of September
Final read: Anthropic · Polymarket · $3.7M vol
When will any company achieve AGI? — Odds & Probability
Final read: Before Jan 1, 2031 · Kalshi · 187.1K contracts vol
Which company has the best AI model end of September
Final read: Anthropic · Polymarket · $4.2M vol
Best AI model on August 31? — Odds & Probability
Final read: claude-opus-5-max · Polymarket · $53.1K vol
Which company has the best AI Agent end of August 2026?
Final read: Anthropic · Polymarket · $100.1K vol
Second-best AI Lab end of August 2026? — Odds
Final read: Google · Polymarket · $154.3K vol
Which company has best AI model end of August 2026?
Final read: Anthropic · Polymarket · $2.9M vol
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What does the latest AI Models & AGI market snapshot record?
The latest open-status snapshot is "When will any company achieve AGI? — Odds & Probability", where one attributed Kalshi listing records a 80% implied probability for Before Jan 1, 2030. Across the corpus through November 5, 2026, W.E.T. records 3 open-status AI Models & AGI market pages.
Which venues appear in W.E.T.'s AI Models & AGI snapshots?
The open-status snapshots through November 5, 2026 are attributed to Kalshi and Polymarket. Each quote keeps its own rules and provenance; a numerical comparison is withheld until exact same-outcome identity is confirmed.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes or a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen archives of the final pre-close read.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. These implied probabilities are dated market-price observations, not current quotes, forecasts, or advice. See the methodology and disclaimer.