Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated September 18, 2026
As of September 18, 2026, the prediction market implies a 91% chance of Matt Damon on Polymarket, with $44K in venue-reported volume.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Matt Damon — market favorite
Polymarket · $44K reported volume
91%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Oscars 2027
2 categories priced
Still contested
2
inside 15 points
Tightest
+4
Best Actor Nominations
Best Actor Nominations
Contested- Matt Damon91%
- John Malkovich87%
- Andrew Scott86%
- Robert Pattinson58%
- Tom Cruise47%
- Ryan Gosling36%
+4 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Best Picture Nominations
Contested- The Odyssey99%
- Wild Horse Nine92%
- The Debut86%
- La Bola Negra85%
- Dune: Part Three80%
- Project Hail Mary79%
+7 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 18, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Matt Damon | Polymarket | 91% | $3.5K |
John Malkovich | Polymarket | 87% | $395 |
Andrew Scott | Polymarket | 86% | $8.6K |
Robert Pattinson | Polymarket | 58% | $905 |
Tom Cruise | Polymarket | 47% | $6.6K |
Ryan Gosling | Polymarket | 36% | $5.7K |
Timothée Chalamet | Polymarket | 27% | $5.5K |
Sebastian Stan | Polymarket | 27% | $1.7K |
John Turturro | Polymarket | 24% | $1.7K |
Adam Driver | Polymarket | 21% | $113 |
Pedro Pascal | Polymarket | 20% | $1.1K |
Jaafar Jackson | Polymarket | 12% | $535 |
Jeremy Strong | Polymarket | 11% | $3.8K |
Robert Aramayo | Polymarket | 9% | $476 |
Brad Pitt | Polymarket | 6% | $1.8K |
Sam Rockwell | Polymarket | 6% | $960 |
Javier Bardem | Polymarket | 6% | $499 |
Josh O'Connor | Polymarket | 5% | $225 |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence is keyed on the first 16 of 18 keyable listings on this snapshot (the route's per-request cap); the rest were not read.
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 18, 2026 snapshot · 54/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 16/30 | $44K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 18 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 15/15 | 20 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
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Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Matt Damon at 91% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $44K in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Friday, September 18 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations at 91% implied probability on Polymarket as of Friday, September 18. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 18 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $44K in venue-native event volume. Matt Damon leads at 91%, a strong favorite, ahead of John Malkovich at 87%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 91% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 91¢ implies a 91% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Friday, September 18; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Entertainment market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Entertainment odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations?
As of Friday, September 18, Polymarket price Matt Damon at 91% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Matt Damon?
The prediction market implies a 91% chance of Matt Damon on Polymarket as of Friday, September 18 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Related topics
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