Fight Night: Miller vs Goff: Odds
By Corbin King · Updated August 4, 2026
As of August 4, 2026, the prediction market implies a 80% chance of Ty Cole Miller — Kalshi 80%, Polymarket 76%, 4 pts apart, on $34.9K in traded volume.
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
Ty Cole Miller — market favorite
Kalshi + Polymarket · $34.9K traded
80%
Implied
Kalshi
80%
Polymarket
76%
Cross-venue gap: Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 4 pts on this outcome — the divergence is the edge. See every gap →
Live market
View the live market on Kalshi
Prices move continuously — open Kalshi for the current line.
The slate — where it is still open
Ceremony
Fight Night
3 categories priced
Still contested
3
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Lemos vs Thainara: Odds
Lemos vs Thainara: Odds
Contested- Alexia Thainara70%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds70%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds69%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds66%
- Fight won by submission?45%
- Lemos to win by KO/TKO?43%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Gamrot vs Salkilld: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds70%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds66%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds63%
- Quillan Salkilld59%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds56%
- Salkilld to win by KO/TKO?48%
+4 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Miller vs Goff: Odds
Contested- Ty Cole Miller80%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds70%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds62%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?53%
- Fight to Go the Distance?52%
- Miller to win by KO/TKO?50%
+10 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Every category decided the same night, tightest race first. The lower bar is the runner-up — the gap between them is the margin.
Live markets — full navigation
Every market on this event, streaming — filter by type, tap any row for the live Kalshi & Polymarket price.
Odds — full market snapshotas of August 4, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Miller to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 50% | — |
Goff to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 47% | — |
Billy Ray Goff vs. Ty Miller Moneyline | Polymarket | 24% | $497 |
Ty Cole Miller | Kalshi | 80% | $24K |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 70% | — |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 62% | — |
Fight won by KO/TKO? | Polymarket | 53% | — |
Fight to Go the Distance? | Polymarket | 52% | — |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. Odds move continuously; this is a dated snapshot — open the live venue for the current price.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the August 4, 2026 snapshot · 61/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 15/30 | $34.9K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 20/20 | 3 live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 12/20 | Kalshi 80% vs Polymarket 76% — a 4-pt gap. Two independent order books landing close is the strongest check a price can get. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 day of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
Citable signals (3)
Live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — the corroboration behind the news component. Every link is the original source.
- Concern about Max Miller quietly grows among Republicans
The Hill · Aug 4, 2026
- Trump declines to call for Max Miller’s resignation amid abuse allegations – as it happened
The Guardian · Aug 4, 2026
- Max Miller, Accused of Abuse, Is Not Stepping Aside. Here’s What We Know.
New York Times · Aug 3, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, the cross-venue gap, the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a move: the divergence scanner across every tracked market, the Index Desk, and the room where the desk argues it out.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Ty Cole Miller at 80% implied probability across Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The two venues disagree by 4 points on the favorite — a cross-venue divergence worth watching.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Tuesday, August 4 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Ty Cole Miller the favorite in Fight Night: Miller vs Goff, pricing the outcome at 80% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday, August 4. Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 4 pts on the favorite — that gap is the cross-venue read. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 11 tracked markets, $35K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. Ty Cole Miller leads at 80%, a strong favorite, ahead of Billy Goff at 22%. The two venues disagree by 4 points on the favorite — a cross-venue divergence that can reflect different liquidity, fees, or resolution rules.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 80% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 80¢ implies a 80% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Tuesday, August 4; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi and Polymarket for the current line, and compare the two venues before assuming the gap is free money.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fight Night: Miller vs Goff?
As of Tuesday, August 4, Kalshi and Polymarket price Ty Cole Miller at 80% implied probability, though Kalshi and Polymarket differ by 4 points. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Ty Cole Miller?
The prediction market implies a 80% chance of Ty Cole Miller on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday, August 4 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
Both venues list this event, so you can compare their prices directly. Right now they diverge by 4 points, which can reflect different liquidity, fees, or resolution rules. When two venues disagree on the same outcome, the gap itself is information.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/fight-night-miller-vs-goff-odds-2026-08-09?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=fight-night-miller-vs-goff-odds-2026-08-09">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.