Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld: Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated August 11, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (August 11, 2026) was a 58% implied probability for Quillan Salkilld on Kalshi.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Quillan Salkilld — market favorite
Kalshi
58%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Fight Night
8 categories priced
Still contested
5
inside 15 points
Tightest
+2
Miller vs Goff: Odds
Miller vs Goff: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds82%
- Ty Cole Miller80%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds64%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?56%
- Miller to win by KO/TKO?50%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds43%
+2 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Johns vs Rosas: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds72%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds67%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds60%
- Miles Johns vs. Jessie Rosas59%
- Miles Johns59%
- Fight to Go the Distance?56%
+5 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Sousa vs Miranda: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds84%
- Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda75%
- Manoel Sousa74%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds70%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds51%
- Fight to Go the Distance?44%
+9 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Asplund vs Pat: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds85%
- Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat74%
- Steven Asplund74%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds66%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?55%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds51%
+11 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Lemos vs Thainara: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds91%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds77%
- Alexia Thainara71%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds67%
- Fight to Go the Distance?64%
- Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara31%
+14 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Gamrot vs Salkilld: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds90%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds75%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds63%
- Quillan Salkilld58%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds56%
- Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld45%
+15 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Nurgozhay vs Lopes: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds80%
- Diyar Nurgozhay61%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds52%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?49%
- Nurgozhay to win by KO/TKO?44%
- Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay41%
+19 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Ferreira vs Quarantillo: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds83%
- Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo63%
- Diego Ferreira62%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds55%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?49%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds43%
+20 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 11, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld Moneyline | Polymarket | 45% | $137.5K |
Salkilld to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 28% | $395 |
Gamrot to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 10% | $22 |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 90% | $33 |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 75% | $133 |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 63% | $5 |
Quillan Salkilld | Kalshi | 58% | 340.6K contracts |
O/U 3.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 56% | $265 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 30/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 10/30 | The event combines unlike venue-native volume units. W.E.T. does not add contracts to dollars, so this component remains at the documented neutral 10/30. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
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Key takeaways
- Final market read: Quillan Salkilld at 58% implied probability on Kalshi.
- The odds moved from 59% at the start of coverage to 58% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 58% implied probability for Quillan Salkilld on Kalshi.
The market's final read
The market never fully made up its mind: Quillan Salkilld closed at just 58%. Dollar volume and contract counts remain separate; W.E.T. publishes no mixed event total.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 6 days: Quillan Salkilld opened our coverage at 59%, ranged between 58% and 59%, and closed at 58%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld: Odds?
The market closed with Quillan Salkilld at 58% implied probability on Kalshi. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld: Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 58% for Quillan Salkilld. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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