Fight Night: Harris vs Hines: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated July 21, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (July 21, 2026) was a 52% implied probability for Alvin Hines — Kalshi 52%, Polymarket 52%, 0 pts apart, on $103.3K in traded volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Alvin Hines — market favorite
Kalshi + Polymarket · $103.3K traded
52%
Implied
Kalshi
52%
Polymarket
52%
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled July 21, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Alvin Hines vs. RJ Harris Moneyline | Polymarket | 52% | $16.1K |
Harris to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 23% | $378 |
Hines to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 33% | $181 |
RJ Harris | Kalshi | 50% | $68.5K |
Alvin Hines | Kalshi | 52% | $17.3K |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 61% | $452 |
Fight won by KO/TKO? | Polymarket | 52% | $401 |
Fight won by submission? | Polymarket | 21% | $43 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 58/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 20/30 | $103.3K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 20/20 | Kalshi 52% vs Polymarket 52% — a 0-pt gap. Two independent order books landing close is the strongest check a price can get. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 6/15 | 4 days of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Alvin Hines at 52% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 58% at the start of coverage to 52% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 52% implied probability for Alvin Hines on Kalshi and Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market never fully made up its mind: Alvin Hines closed at just 52%. Across the event's tracked markets, $103K changed hands.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 4 days: Alvin Hines opened our coverage at 58%, ranged between 52% and 58%, and closed at 52%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, money-weighted estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Fight Night: Harris vs Hines?
The market closed with Alvin Hines at 52% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket. That was the final money-weighted read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Fight Night: Harris vs Hines right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 52% for Alvin Hines. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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