Fight Night: Cannonier vs Duncan: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated July 21, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (July 21, 2026) was a 78% implied probability for Christian Duncan — Kalshi 78%, Polymarket 77%, 1 pt apart, on $182.4K in traded volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Christian Duncan — market favorite
Kalshi + Polymarket · $182.4K traded
78%
Implied
Kalshi
78%
Polymarket
77%
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled July 21, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Moneyline | Polymarket | 23% | $37.8K |
Duncan to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 40% | $92 |
Cannonier to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 14% | — |
Jared Cannonier | Kalshi | 24% | $94.3K |
Christian Duncan | Kalshi | 78% | $49.8K |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 81% | $290 |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 61% | $178 |
Fight to Go the Distance? | Polymarket | 51% | $27 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 61/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 23/30 | $182.4K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 18/20 | Kalshi 78% vs Polymarket 77% — a 1-pt gap. Two independent order books landing close is the strongest check a price can get. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 8/15 | 5 days of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Christian Duncan at 78% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 74% at the start of coverage to 78% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 78% implied probability for Christian Duncan on Kalshi and Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was Christian Duncan at 78% — favored, but not a lock. Across the event's tracked markets, $182K changed hands.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 5 days: Christian Duncan opened our coverage at 74%, ranged between 74% and 78%, and closed at 78%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, money-weighted estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Fight Night: Cannonier vs Duncan?
The market closed with Christian Duncan at 78% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket. That was the final money-weighted read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Fight Night: Cannonier vs Duncan right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 78% for Christian Duncan. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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