Fight Night: Aljarouj vs Sintes: Odds
By Corbin King · Updated September 4, 2026
As of September 4, 2026, the prediction market implies a 56% chance of Michael Aljarouj on Kalshi.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Michael Aljarouj — market favorite
Kalshi
56%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Kalshi
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Kalshi to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Fight Night
13 categories priced
Still contested
13
inside 15 points
Tightest
+2
Campbell vs Peek: Odds
Campbell vs Peek: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds80%
- Kurtis Campbell78%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds60%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds46%
- Fight won by submission?37%
- Campbell to win by KO/TKO?25%
+2 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Keita vs Naimov: Odds
Contested- Losene Keita78%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds76%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds57%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?52%
- Keita to win by KO/TKO?51%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds46%
+2 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Hooker vs Parnasse: Odds
Contested- Salahdine Parnasse82%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds79%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds66%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?56%
- Parnasse to win by KO/TKO?49%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds36%
+3 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Pinto vs Spann: Odds
Contested- Mario Pinto74%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds69%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?55%
- Pinto to win by KO/TKO?47%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds45%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds31%
+5 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Ziam vs Sola: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds84%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds78%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds66%
- Fight to Go the Distance?61%
- Farés Ziam vs. Axel Sola59%
- Fares Ziam59%
+6 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Donchenko vs Soriano: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds76%
- Daniil Donchenko69%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds63%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?54%
- Donchenko to win by KO/TKO?43%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds43%
+7 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Wood vs Andrusca: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds81%
- Nathaniel Wood73%
- Nathaniel Wood vs. Pavel Andrusca72%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds67%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds62%
- Fight to Go the Distance?53%
+8 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Benouaich vs Montenegro: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds84%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds72%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds69%
- Fight to Go the Distance?65%
- Delphine Benouaich57%
- Sofia Montenegro vs. Delphine Benouaich43%
+12 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Cornolle vs Sygula: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds84%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds72%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds64%
- Fight to Go the Distance?63%
- Nora Cornolle52%
- Nora Cornolle vs. Klaudia Sygula51%
+12 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Aljarouj vs Sintes: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds80%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds67%
- Michael Aljarouj56%
- Michael Aljarouj vs. Fabia Sintes55%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds50%
- Fabia Sintes46%
+13 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Page vs Ruziboev: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds82%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds69%
- Michael Page61%
- Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev60%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds60%
- Fight to Go the Distance?56%
+13 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Sy vs Bukauskas: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds82%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds68%
- Oumar Sy67%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds59%
- Fight to Go the Distance?56%
- Modestas Bukauskas vs. Oumar Sy33%
+14 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Duclos vs Dias: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds70%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?56%
- Matthieu Letho Duclos51%
- Luis Felipe Dias vs. Matthieu Letho Duclos50%
- Luis Felipe Dias49%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds46%
+14 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Fetched venue snapshot — market navigation
One cached fetch of the venue-attributed rows W.E.T. matched to this event. Filter the returned rows by type; this panel does not poll, subscribe, or claim exhaustive venue coverage.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 4, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Michael Aljarouj vs. Fabia Sintes Moneyline | Polymarket | 55% | $4.7K |
Aljarouj to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 23% | — |
Sintes to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 14% | — |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 80% | — |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 67% | — |
Michael Aljarouj | Kalshi | 56% | 7.2K contracts |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 50% | — |
Fabia Sintes | Kalshi | 46% | 4.5K contracts |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 4, 2026 snapshot · 32/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 10/30 | The event combines unlike venue-native volume units. W.E.T. does not add contracts to dollars, so this component remains at the documented neutral 10/30. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
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Key takeaways
- One tracked Kalshi listing prices Michael Aljarouj at 56% implied probability.
- Venue volume remains separate because this event combines dollar volume and contract counts.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Friday, September 4 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Michael Aljarouj the favorite in Fight Night: Aljarouj vs Sintes, pricing the outcome at 56% implied probability on Kalshi as of Friday, September 4. Related venue listings are shown separately; W.E.T. has not confirmed them as the same outcome for a numerical comparison. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 11 tracked market rows, Venue volume remains separate because this event combines dollar volume and contract counts. Michael Aljarouj leads at 56%, a clear favorite, ahead of Fabia Sintes at 46%. Related venue listings remain separate until the canonical graph confirms outcome and settlement-basis equivalence.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 56% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 56¢ implies a 56% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Friday, September 4; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi for the current line.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fight Night: Aljarouj vs Sintes?
As of Friday, September 4, Kalshi price Michael Aljarouj at 56% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Michael Aljarouj?
The prediction market implies a 56% chance of Michael Aljarouj on Kalshi as of Friday, September 4 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
Both venues carry related listings. W.E.T. publishes them separately until canonical identity and settlement-basis checks confirm that a numerical comparison is valid.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/fight-night-aljarouj-vs-sintes-odds-2026-09-06?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=fight-night-aljarouj-vs-sintes-odds-2026-09-06">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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