Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
Retired for vagueness · no longer on the board
This index was published under the desk’s current standard and withdrawn from the board by amendment v1.3 §10, which holds a universe to the bar the thesis has always been held to: a universe that declares only a category makes no claim any market could falsify. Its methodology, its inverse twin and its failure ladder were all compiled — the declaration of what it was about is what did not hold up. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It returns to the board the day a committed spec declares a universe that names its subject — the bar it was refused by (`universe-names-no-subject`). Compiling a methodology is not the missing piece and never was. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Culture Heat Index
v3SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 21, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Decided → Wide open)
How wide-open the culture, awards, and entertainment races are right now.
Retired — read instead: W.E.T. Awards Race Index. this reading admitted every market the `culture` category contained — 55 of 55 on the 2026-08-13 board — so its roster was decided by the classifier rather than by any claim it made. The Awards Race Index answers the same question the Culture Heat mental model actually described ("how wide-open the awards and entertainment races are"), but names its subject: 19 declared terms over the awards board. This page and its full history remain published for continuity.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 930.17
- Since inception
- −6.98%
- Cost to cross
- 0.58pts
- Holdings marked
- 47.7% of 44
- 1 day
- −0.82%
- 7 day
- −0.67%
- Markets held
- 44
- Settled
- 3
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 53.6%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 70
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 44 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 16cpolymarketYES16c17c+2.5%6.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 6c15 sessions stale0.1¢ spread · 8640.3k/459.5k within 5¢polymarketYES6c3c−46.4%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?polymarket · YES · entry 54c10 sessions stale0.1¢ spread · 95.9k/21.0k within 5¢polymarketYES54c77c+43.0%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 4c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c3c−29.1%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 75c1.0¢ spread · 6.3k/6.7k within 5¢polymarketYES75c89c+19.5%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?polymarket · YES · entry 11c2.0¢ spread · 279.8k/19.0k within 5¢polymarketYES11c3c−77.3%4.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?polymarket · YES · entry 96c70 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c96c0.0%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?polymarket · YES · entry 53c1.0¢ spread · 3.7k/3.0k within 5¢polymarketYES53c89c+67.0%3.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c13 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 26.5k/12.0k within 5¢polymarketYES10c5c−50.5%3.7%Polymarket ↗
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?polymarket · YES · entry 49c1.0¢ spread · 3.3k/2.9k within 5¢polymarketYES49c8c−84.5%3.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?polymarket · YES · entry 48c70 sessions stalepolymarketYES48c48c0.0%3.5%Polymarket ↗
- Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 76c70 sessions stalepolymarketYES76c76c0.0%3.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 85c1.0¢ spread · 58.2k/445.0k within 5¢polymarketYES85c94c+10.7%3.3%Polymarket ↗
- SBF released from custody in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c4 sessions stale0.6¢ spread · 329.5k/996 within 5¢polymarketYES5c2c−65.9%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 94c5 sessions stale1.3¢ spread · 1.3k/15.9k within 5¢polymarketYES94c97c+2.9%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?polymarket · YES · entry 63cpolymarketYES63c28c−55.0%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 50cpolymarketYES50c36c−28.0%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k?polymarket · YES · entry 33c19 sessions stalepolymarketYES33c97c+198.5%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 22c3.0¢ spread · 558/785 within 5¢polymarketYES22c13c−43.2%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 38c2.0¢ spread · 2.5k/1.4k within 5¢polymarketYES38c4c−88.5%2.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Oscar Isaac – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?polymarket · YES · entry 61c35 sessions stalepolymarketYES61c72c+19.0%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?polymarket · YES · entry 59cpolymarketYES59c1c−98.3%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026gemini · YES · entry 26c19 sessions stalegeminiYES26c13c−51.9%2.4%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Above 45gemini · YES · entry 89c70 sessions stalegeminiYES89c89c0.0%2.3%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Clavicular sentenced to prison?polymarket · YES · entry 13c15 sessions stale2.0¢ spread · 31.3k/2.2k within 5¢polymarketYES13c7c−50.0%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?polymarket · YES · entry 63c2.4¢ spread · 12/9.1k within 5¢polymarketYES63c99c+56.2%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.1¢ spread · 69.8k/4.1k within 5¢polymarketYES4c3c−33.7%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 41c0.3¢ spread · 2.9k/7.7k within 5¢polymarketYES41c95c+131.9%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 22c5 sessions stale2.0¢ spread · 2.1k/454 within 5¢polymarketYES22c6c−72.7%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- LA28 Olympics run as scheduled?polymarket · YES · entry 88c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES88c86c−2.5%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 77c1.0¢ spread · 3.0k/2.4k within 5¢polymarketYES77c88c+15.0%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?polymarket · YES · entry 75c1.0¢ spread · 719/2.1k within 5¢polymarketYES75c97c+30.8%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 47c5 sessions stale4.0¢ spread · 315/29 within 5¢polymarketYES47c99c+110.6%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 11c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES11c17c+61.9%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- GTA VI released before November 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c3c−6.5%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 80c1.0¢ spread · 19.4k/12.7k within 5¢polymarketYES80c86c+7.5%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?polymarket · YES · entry 81c0.8¢ spread · 4.8k/7.2k within 5¢polymarketYES81c97c+20.3%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Emmet Carroll win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year?polymarket · YES · entry 28c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c6c−79.6%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?polymarket · YES · entry 60cpolymarketYES60c1c−98.3%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c8c−36.0%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 52cpolymarketYES52c37c−29.1%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Dee Valladaresgemini · YES · entry 22c70 sessions stalegeminiYES22c22c0.0%0.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Above 80gemini · YES · entry 79c70 sessions stalegeminiYES79c79c0.0%0.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Grand Theft Auto VIgemini · YES · entry 71c9 sessions stalegeminiYES71c84c+18.4%0.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Moderate
- 49d Range
- 3761
- Percentile
- 39th
- 8d Change
- −1.5
- Volatility
- 3.8 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 35
- Effective N
- 7.2
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 1 K · 34 P
- Method
- v3
- Basket
- 35/36
- Frozen
- 2026-09-01
- Chain
- ×1.1402
Daily close
49d published · interactive49 published close(s) — 0–100 (Decided → Wide open). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 49d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.03/day, projection σ 3.7 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
top 24 of 35 by weight · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 4 holdingsHide the remaining 4 holdings
Where these markets are covered
17 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? — Odds
- GTA 6 launch postponed again? — Odds & Probability
- MLB: 2026 NL MVP — Odds & Probability
- Highest grossing movie in 2026? — Odds & Probability
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...? — Odds
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? — Odds
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? — Odds
- Top Spotify Artist 2026 — Odds & Probability
- Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026? — Odds
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — Odds & Probability
- Weed rescheduled by...? — Odds & Probability
- Next James Bond actor? — Odds & Probability
- Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner — Odds & Probability
- Billboard #1 Artist 2026 — Odds & Probability
- Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner — Odds & Probability
- MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner — Odds & Probability
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 3 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Over the next year, who will break the stories everyone talks about?
Newsrooms and traditional mediaIndependent creators and podcastersIn the 2027 awards season, will the favorites win?
The favorites mostly winPlenty of upsetsOver the next year, will a few giant hits dominate what people watch and hear?
No — attention spreads across more nichesYes — a few giant hits dominate
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WCHI · at a glance
- What it is
- The toss-up gauge for culture — how wide-open the awards & entertainment races are.
- High vs low
- Higher = more wide-open culture/awards races (no clear favorite). Lower = decided.
- Who cares
- Entertainment reporters and culture-watchers gauging how contested the awards board is.
Embed this score
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[](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/culture-heat)<a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/culture-heat"><img src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/culture-heat/badge" alt="WCHI — WET Index Score" /></a><iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/indices/culture-heat" width="340" height="170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="WCHI — WET Index Score" loading="lazy"></iframe>Quote this index
free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Culture Heat Index (WCHI) prints a WET Index Score of 43.1/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.