Retired for vagueness · no longer on the board

This index was published under the desk’s current standard and withdrawn from the board by amendment v1.3 §10, which holds a universe to the bar the thesis has always been held to: a universe that declares only a category makes no claim any market could falsify. Its methodology, its inverse twin and its failure ladder were all compiled — the declaration of what it was about is what did not hold up. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It returns to the board the day a committed spec declares a universe that names its subject — the bar it was refused by (`universe-names-no-subject`). Compiling a methodology is not the missing piece and never was. See the published suite →

WCHI

W.E.T. Culture Heat Index

v3SlateMonthly
40.700.00 (0.00%)Moderate & climbing, volatile

As of Sep 5, 2026 · last moved Sep 4, 2026 · scale 0–100 (DecidedWide open)

How wide-open the culture, awards, and entertainment races are right now.

Retired read instead: W.E.T. Awards Race Index. this reading admitted every market the `culture` category contained — 55 of 55 on the 2026-08-13 board — so its roster was decided by the classifier rather than by any claim it made. The Awards Race Index answers the same question the Culture Heat mental model actually described ("how wide-open the awards and entertainment races are"), but names its subject: 19 declared terms over the awards board. This page and its full history remain published for continuity.

Basket level · official print46 held · close 2026-09-05
959.34−4.07%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
959.34
Since inception
−4.07%
Cost to cross
0.67pts
Holdings marked
78.3% of 46
1 day
−0.51%
7 day
−2.10%
Markets held
46
Settled
1
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
Cash
51.9%
Inception
2026-08-01
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
32

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 46 markets

held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 16c20c+25.2%
  • Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 6c0.1¢ spread · 5367.0k/448.1k within 5¢4c−30.0%
  • Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?polymarket · YES · entry 54c0.1¢ spread · 83.4k/36.4k within 5¢66c+23.9%
  • Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 4c4 sessions stale3c−29.1%
  • Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 75c1.0¢ spread · 3.8k/3.9k within 5¢88c+17.4%
  • GTA 6 launch postponed again?polymarket · YES · entry 11c1.0¢ spread · 297.5k/25.3k within 5¢7c−40.9%
  • Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?polymarket · YES · entry 96c32 sessions stale96c0.0%
  • Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?polymarket · YES · entry 53c1.0¢ spread · 8.3k/2.5k within 5¢77c+44.3%
  • Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c1.0¢ spread · 16.3k/7.3k within 5¢8c−21.1%
  • Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?polymarket · YES · entry 49c2.0¢ spread · 7.4k/9.3k within 5¢29c−40.2%
  • Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?polymarket · YES · entry 48c32 sessions stale48c0.0%
  • Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 76c32 sessions stale76c0.0%
  • Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 85c1.0¢ spread · 108.4k/441.6k within 5¢94c+10.7%
  • SBF released from custody in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c0.5¢ spread · 400.5k/3.4k within 5¢3c−33.0%
  • Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 94c1.6¢ spread · 1.8k/16.0k within 5¢96c+1.9%
  • Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?polymarket · YES · entry 63c24c−62.9%
  • Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 50c45c−11.0%
  • Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k?polymarket · YES · entry 33c73c+123.1%
  • Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 22c4.0¢ spread · 253/89 within 5¢18c−18.2%
  • Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 38c2.0¢ spread · 6.4k/1.5k within 5¢13c−65.3%
  • Will Oscar Isaac – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?polymarket · YES · entry 61c73c+19.8%
  • Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?polymarket · YES · entry 59c7c−89.0%
  • Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026gemini · YES · entry 26c2 sessions stale7c−75.0%
  • Above 45gemini · YES · entry 89c32 sessions stale89c0.0%
  • Clavicular sentenced to prison?polymarket · YES · entry 13c1.0¢ spread · 8.6k/6.9k within 5¢11c−19.2%
  • Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?polymarket · YES · entry 63c4.1¢ spread · 13.9k/374 within 5¢78c+23.4%
  • Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?polymarket · YES · entry 4c2.9¢ spread · 56.2k/7.3k within 5¢5c+22.5%
  • Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 41c0.4¢ spread · 575/9.3k within 5¢84c+103.4%
  • Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 22c2.0¢ spread · 1.3k/535 within 5¢11c−50.0%
  • LA28 Olympics run as scheduled?polymarket · YES · entry 88c4 sessions stale86c−2.5%
  • Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 77c1.0¢ spread · 8.1k/10.0k within 5¢80c+3.9%
  • Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?polymarket · YES · entry 75c1.0¢ spread · 778/827 within 5¢75c0.0%
  • Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 47c3.0¢ spread · 3.0k/152 within 5¢66c+39.4%
  • Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 11c11c+4.8%
  • GTA VI released before November 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3c28 sessions stale3c−6.5%
  • Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?polymarket · YES · entry 35c3.0¢ spread · 526/550 within 5¢40c+14.5%
  • Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 80c1.0¢ spread · 21.7k/27.5k within 5¢87c+8.8%
  • Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?polymarket · YES · entry 81c0.8¢ spread · 3.2k/11.8k within 5¢94c+15.5%
  • Will Emmet Carroll win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year?polymarket · YES · entry 28c6c−77.8%
  • Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?polymarket · YES · entry 60c2c−96.4%
  • Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?polymarket · YES · entry 13c13c0.0%
  • Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?polymarket · YES · entry 52c2.0¢ spread · 579/207 within 5¢59c+13.5%
  • Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 52c43c−16.5%
  • Dee Valladaresgemini · YES · entry 22c32 sessions stale22c0.0%
  • Above 80gemini · YES · entry 79c32 sessions stale79c0.0%
  • Grand Theft Auto VIgemini · YES · entry 71c74c+5.0%

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews
Previous
40.70
Band
Moderate
34d Range
3761
Percentile
35th
7d Change
+3.5
Volatility
4.5 pts/d
Streak
Markets
36
Effective N
7.2
Top Weight
25%
Venues
1 K · 35 P
Method
v3
Basket
36/36
Frozen
2026-09-01
Chain
×1.1935

Daily close

34d published · interactive

34 published close(s) — 0–100 (Decided → Wide open). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 34d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
10203040506070now39
Projected 14d
38.80
Change
1.90
80% band
1364
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 34 readings, slope -0.28/day, projection σ 5.3 pts/d widened for a 34-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Premium
🔒

Premium

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Premium
🔒

Premium

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
culture100% · 36

Constituents by weight

top 24 of 36 by weight · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-05) · the basket below holds a different set
Show the remaining 4 holdings

Where these markets are covered

16 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. page

The view this index measures

Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 3 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.

  • Who owns the narrative next?

    Legacy media holds the centerCreators take the narrative
  • Do the awards races stay predictable?

    Favorites sweepUpsets rule the season
  • Where does attention consolidate?

    Platforms fragment furtherMegahits recapture culture

WCHI · at a glance

What it is
The toss-up gauge for culture — how wide-open the awards & entertainment races are.
High vs low
Higher = more wide-open culture/awards races (no clear favorite). Lower = decided.
Who cares
Entertainment reporters and culture-watchers gauging how contested the awards board is.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 5, 2026, the W.E.T. Culture Heat Index (WCHI) prints a WET Index Score of 40.7/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”

Full methodology →JSONLive intradayDaily report

Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.