Culture Heat Index
WCHIW.E.T. Culture Heat Index
How wide-open the culture, awards, and entertainment races are right now.
Higher = more wide-open culture/awards races (no clear favorite). Lower = decided.
History · 1 day
Computed from 16 markets (effective 5.2) · 0 Kalshi / 16 Polymarket · $38.9M vol · top holding 25%
The desk read
Published at 50.0 (Moderate).
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- +0.0
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
54% · 25% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
82% · 25% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
72% · 17% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
10% · 16% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
3% · 10% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
58% · 4% wt · polymarket
WCHI · at a glance
- What it is
- The toss-up gauge for culture — how wide-open the awards & entertainment races are.
- High vs low
- Higher = more wide-open culture/awards races (no clear favorite). Lower = decided.
- Who cares
- Entertainment reporters and culture-watchers gauging how contested the awards board is.
What's in it today
The live markets feeding today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
| Market | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | polymarket | 54% | 25.0% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | polymarket | 82% | 25.0% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | polymarket | 72% | 16.5% |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | polymarket | 10% | 16.2% |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | polymarket | 3% | 10.1% |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | polymarket | 58% | 4.2% |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? | polymarket | 10% | 1.0% |
| Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 21% | 0.3% |
| Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k? | polymarket | 31% | 0.3% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | polymarket | 85% | 0.3% |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? | polymarket | 81% | 0.3% |
| Will "Music, Fashion, Film" - Charli XCX first week album sales be greater than 80k? | polymarket | 48% | 0.2% |
| Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k? | polymarket | 53% | 0.2% |
| Will "Daughter from Hell - Gracie Abrams" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 1? | polymarket | 98% | 0.2% |
| Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by December 31? | polymarket | 71% | 0.1% |
| Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? | polymarket | 43% | 0.1% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 23, 2026, the W.E.T. Culture Heat Index (WCHI) reads 50.0/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. Culture Heat Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.