Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of
By Corbin V King · Updated October 7, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (October 7, 2026) was a 50% implied probability for Lula da Silva <5% on Polymarket, with $1.2M in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Lula da Silva <5% — market favorite
Polymarket · $1.2M reported volume
50%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Brazil Presidential Election First Round
12 categories priced
Still contested
3
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Flávio
Fláviosettled
Contested- 42-45%36%
- 39-42%36%
- 45-48%14%
- <39%10%
- 51%+5%
- 48-51%3%
+0 pt margin · 6 nominees
Lula Votesettled
Contested- 41-44%41%
- 44%+40%
- 38-41%19%
- 35-38%6%
- <35%3%
+1 pt margin · 5 nominees
Renan Santossettled
Contested- 2-4%34%
- 4-6%24%
- <2%14%
- 6-8%14%
- 8%+11%
+10 pt margin · 5 nominees
Margin ofsettled
Clear favourite- Lula da Silva <5%50%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%35%
- Lula da Silva 5-10%11%
- Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%4%
- Renan Santos Victory1%
- Lula da Silva 10-15%1%
+15 pt margin · 11 nominees · 5 more
2nd Placesettled
Clear favourite- Flávio Bolsonaro61%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva38%
- Renan Santos1%
- Fernando Haddad1%
- Ratinho Júnior1%
- Ronaldo Caiado1%
+23 pt margin · 18 nominees · 12 more
Augusto Curysettled
Clear favourite- 4-6%50%
- 6%+20%
- 2-4%14%
- 1-2%14%
- <1%4%
+30 pt margin · 5 nominees
3rd Placesettled
Clear favourite- Renan Santos57%
- Augusto Cury25%
- Ronaldo Caiado20%
- Flávio Bolsonaro1%
- Romeu Zema1%
- Ratinho Júnior1%
+32 pt margin · 19 nominees · 13 more
1st Place insettled
Clear favourite- Lula67%
- Flavio Bolsonaro28%
- Renan Santos1%
- Clariana Barao1%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi1%
- Rui Costa Pimenta1%
+39 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Fláviosettled
Decided- 39%+87%
- 36-39%10%
- 33-36%3%
- <30%2%
- 30-33%1%
+77 pt margin · 5 nominees
1st Place insettled
Decided- Flavio Bolsonaro91%
- Lula10%
- Ronaldo Caiado1%
- Edmilson Costa1%
- Clariana Barao1%
- Samara1%
+81 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place insettled
Decided- Flavio Bolsonaro94%
- Lula3%
- Zema1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Clariana Barao1%
- Samara1%
+91 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
1st Place insettled
Decided- Flavio Bolsonaro99%
- Ronaldo Caiado2%
- Lula1%
- Pablo Marçal1%
- Renan Santos1%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi1%
+97 pt margin · 13 nominees · 7 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled October 7, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Lula da Silva <5% | Polymarket | 50% | $201.1K |
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | Polymarket | 35% | $138.6K |
Lula da Silva 5-10% | Polymarket | 11% | $226.4K |
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | Polymarket | 4% | $119.1K |
Renan Santos Victory | Polymarket | 1% | $223.2K |
Lula da Silva 10-15% | Polymarket | 1% | $100.7K |
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ | Polymarket | 1% | $78K |
Lula da Silva 15%+ | Polymarket | 1% | $46.5K |
Other | Polymarket | 1% | $12K |
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory | Polymarket | 1% | $10.7K |
Ratinho Júnior Victory | Polymarket | 1% | $10.1K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 84/100 · Strong Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $1.2M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 16/20 | 2 live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 11 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 15/15 | 10 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (2)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
- Brazil elections live: Lula faces Bolsonaro in close presidential race
Al Jazeera · Oct 4, 2026
- Brazil Election: What to Know as Lula and Bolsonaro Face Off in 2026 Presidential Race
New York Times · Oct 4, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Lula da Silva <5% at 50% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 54% at the start of coverage to 50% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 50% implied probability for Lula da Silva <5% on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market never fully made up its mind: Lula da Silva <5% closed at just 50%. The attributed event snapshot reports $1.2M in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 10 days: Lula da Silva <5% opened our coverage at 54%, ranged between 50% and 69%, and closed at 50%. Implied probability is the attributed venue listing's price read as a percentage. It repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Elections odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of?
The market closed with Lula da Silva <5% at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. That was W.E.T.'s final attributed listing observation before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 50% for Lula da Silva <5%. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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