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Live Prediction Markets
The 2026 World Cup has been decided. The market's final read (July 22, 2026): Spain at 59% implied probability, on $4.29B traded.
Every World Cup market W.E.T. tracks, in one arena — implied probability, volume, and movement, frozen as the permanent record. Implied probability is a live market price, not a forecast; see the methodology.
The final winner board
▲ Spain moved 38% → 59% since July 14, 2026 — the final repricing after the semifinals.
Full market breakdown6
Live markets
$4.41B
Tracked volume
19
Settled archives
2
Venues
| Market | Market’s call | Implied % | Venue | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which continent will win the World Cup? — Odds & Probability | Europe (UEFA) | 59% | Polymarket | $10.6M |
| World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer — Odds & Probability | France | 91% | Polymarket | $2.4M |
| World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation) — Odds & Probability | Argentina | 70% | Polymarket | $1.9M |
| World Cup: Lionel Messi Goals — Odds & Probability | 9+ | 38% | Polymarket | $378.2K |
| World Cup: Most Assists — Odds & Probability | Michael Olise | 99% | Polymarket | $304.1K |
| World Cup: Kylian Mbappe Goals — Odds & Probability | 9+ | 55% | Polymarket | $261.8K |
Each row is a full market page — history, venue split, and the news signals behind the price.
Match markets whose two sides are both nations on the winner board — surfaced automatically, settled into the archive after full time.
Every market here is frozen at its final pre-close read — what the money believed before the whistle. See the full settled markets archive.
Final read: Spain · Polymarket · $4.29B vol
Final read: Kylian Mbappe · Polymarket · $71.1M vol
Final read: Lionel Messi · Polymarket · $14.1M vol
Final read: Argentina · Polymarket · $13.8M vol
Final read: Ferran Torres · Polymarket · $1.5M vol
Final read: Yes · Polymarket · $1.1M vol
Final read: Spain · Polymarket · $661.2K vol
Final read: 5+ matches · Polymarket · $536.9K vol
Final read: Lamine Yamal · Polymarket · $319.8K vol
Final read: Norway · Polymarket · $282.7K vol
Final read: Unai Simón · Polymarket · $280.2K vol
Final read: ESP vs ENG · Polymarket · $280K vol
Final read: History · Polymarket · $194.7K vol
Final read: Kylian Mbappé · Polymarket · $172.7K vol
Final read: Champion · Polymarket · $1.9M vol
Final read: Final · Polymarket · $523.8K vol
Final read: Semifinals · Polymarket · $361.8K vol
Final read: Semifinals · Polymarket · $329.8K vol
Final read: Heavyweight · Polymarket · $187.8K vol
How this arena settles
This arena is settled. Every number above is a final pre-close read — frozen, dated, and permanent. It stays up as the record of what prediction markets believed about the 2026 World Cup. Part of the Big Event Desk — a new arena every quarter.
Answers
Prediction markets priced Spain as the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup. Its final read was 59% implied probability on Polymarket, on $4.29B in traded volume. That was a money-weighted price, not a forecast.
The final was played Sunday, July 19, 2026, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey — the first men’s World Cup final hosted by the United States since 1994.
W.E.T. tracks $4.41B in traded volume across 25 World Cup markets on Kalshi and Polymarket — the deepest event book on the W.E.T. desk. Volume figures are cumulative traded dollars reported by the venues, as of July 22, 2026.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated US exchange) and Polymarket (crypto-native). W.E.T. aggregates both books in one place — implied probability, volume, and the cross-venue gap when the same market trades on both — as data, not advice.
No. Implied probability is a live market price — what traders are collectively paying for each outcome — not a forecast from W.E.T. Settled markets on this page are frozen at their final pre-close read.
Explore W.E.T.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Implied probabilities are live market prices, not forecasts or advice. Prediction markets may be restricted in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+.
The news wire
Real headlines, filtered to the 2026 World Cup — on a loop.
Spain and France battle raging wildfires, face high risk of more
Watch: Highlights as England stun France 6-4 in third-place play-off
Spain vs Argentina: World Cup final predictions, schedule, Messi news
Watch FIFA World Cup: Argentina, Spain make preparations ahead of final
Spain vs Argentina: How each team can win the 2026 World Cup final
A final that will define Lamine Yamal's World Cup
Gaza cheers for Spain as World Cup final anticipation mounts
World Cup 2026 final: Closing ceremony and half-time show – what to know
Messi on the brink of history - will it be his last World Cup game?
FIFA World Cup 2026 sees major increase in goals from outside the box
Over to you, Messi - Mbappe leads Golden Boot race for the ages
Argentina’s New York fans share hopes before 2026 World Cup final
Where the crowd stands
Consensus
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?
1 votesCommunity votes · WET score — sentiment, not a market price. Not a trade signal.