The Daily Signal Sheet
Signal Sheet — Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Today: 8 markets moved — >280m up 62 pts to 99%, 10 events resolve this week.
Biggest odds moves
>280m · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
Philadelphia 76ers · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
Alexandre Kalil · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
July 31 · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
September 30 · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
Yes · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
France · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
47-52m · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
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On the calendar this week
Sports · Lorenzo Musetti 61%
Sports · Alex de Minaur 58%
Sports · Qinwen Zheng 56%
Sports · Taylor Fritz 80%
Sports · Marcos Giron 90%
Sports · Match Winner 14%
Sports · Tommy Paul 79%
Sports · Learner Tien 80%
Sports · Jakub Mensik 79%
Sports · Tallon Griekspoor 60%
Market snapshots
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
Philadelphia 76ers · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
Xavier Becerra · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
Los Angeles Dodgers · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
Harry Kane · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
Yulia Navalnaya · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
United Russia (ER) · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
December 31 · Polymarket · verify current venue listing ↗
On the wire
- Red Flag Warning issued August 4 at 1:39AM MDT until August 4 at 7:00PM MDT by NWS Denver CO — National Weather Service
- Fire Weather Watch issued August 4 at 1:39AM MDT until August 5 at 7:00PM MDT by NWS Denver CO — National Weather Service
- Fire Weather Watch issued August 4 at 1:39AM MDT until August 5 at 7:00PM MDT by NWS Denver CO — National Weather Service
- Why is Trump Media selling early access to Trump's Truth Social posts? — BBC
- Trump sells his social posts to the highest bidder - with huge stock market consequences — Sky News
- What is Trump Media's Truth API and why is it controversial? — BBC
- Concern about Max Miller quietly grows among Republicans — The Hill
- Trump declines to call for Max Miller’s resignation amid abuse allegations – as it happened — The Guardian
- Trump, Graham Dominate Senate Race: 5 Takeaways from South Carolina Debate. — New York Times
- South Carolina Republicans jockey to replace Graham on Senate ballot: Key takeaways from first debate — The Hill
- Sailors Working in Strait of Hormuz Are Caught in Crossfire of Iran War — New York Times
- An Emerging Deal Between Iran and Oman to Reopen Hormuz Would Come at a Cost for Trump — New York Times
Implied probabilities are dated, venue-attributed observations captured for this issue — not current quotes, forecasts, or advice. Verify the current listing on the venue. 18+.