Will Congress override Trump's veto? — Odds
By Corbin King · Updated July 14, 2026
As of July 14, 2026, the prediction market implies a 29% chance of Before Jan 20, 2029 on Kalshi, on $27.5K in traded volume.
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
Before Jan 20, 2029 — market favorite
Kalshi · $27.5K traded
29%
Implied
Live market
View the live market on Kalshi
Prices move continuously — open Kalshi for the current line.
Odds — full market snapshotas of July 14, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Before Jan 20, 2029 | Kalshi | 29% | $14.5K |
Before 2027 | Kalshi | 15% | $12.1K |
Before Aug 1, 2026 | Kalshi | 4% | $896 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. Odds move continuously; this is a dated snapshot — open the live venue for the current price.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the July 14, 2026 snapshot · 46/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 14/30 | $27.5K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 10/20 | 1 live wire headline lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 8/20 | Priced on one venue only — no independent book to check the number against, so this component sits at a neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 5/15 | 3 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 9/15 | 6 days of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
Citable signals (1)
Live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — the corroboration behind the news component. Every link is the original source.
- G.O.P. Boxed In on Iran War as Trump Sidelines Congress
New York Times · Jul 20, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Before Jan 20, 2029 at 29% implied probability on Kalshi.
- $27K has traded across 3 markets on this event.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Tuesday, July 14 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Will Congress override Trump's veto? at 29% implied probability on Kalshi as of Tuesday, July 14. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 3 tracked markets, $27K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. Before Jan 20, 2029 leads at 29%, a longshot, ahead of Before 2027 at 15%. It currently trades on Kalshi; if it also lists on the other venue, the cross-venue gap becomes a second signal to watch.
How political markets like this resolve
Political markets resolve on an official outcome — a vote, an appointment, a signed order, a court ruling — by a stated deadline. The price is the crowd’s real-money read on whether it actually happens, not a pundit’s guess.
What could move it
Polling, legislative calendars, court dockets, primary results, and official announcements are the catalysts that reprice political markets. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 29% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 29¢ implies a 29% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Tuesday, July 14; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi for the current line.
Track this and every Politics market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Politics odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Will Congress override Trump's veto?
As of Tuesday, July 14, Kalshi price Before Jan 20, 2029 at 29% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Before Jan 20, 2029?
The prediction market implies a 29% chance of Before Jan 20, 2029 on Kalshi as of Tuesday, July 14 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This event is currently listed on Kalshi. When an event trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, W.E.T. shows the cross-venue divergence, because a gap on the same outcome can signal an edge or a difference in the fine print.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.