Who will Trump speak to in July 2026? — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated August 3, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (August 3, 2026) was a 42% implied probability for Emmanuel Macron on Polymarket, with $288K in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Emmanuel Macron — market favorite
Polymarket · $288K reported volume
42%
Implied
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 3, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Emmanuel Macron | Polymarket | 42% | $97.8K |
Ursula von der Leyen | Polymarket | 33% | $5.2K |
Lula da Silva | Polymarket | 7% | $4.5K |
Elon Musk | Polymarket | 4% | $3.9K |
Yoon Suk Yeol | Polymarket | 1% | $18.4K |
Xi Jinping | Polymarket | 1% | $13.1K |
Maria Corina Machado | Polymarket | 1% | $5.7K |
Kim Jong Un | Polymarket | 1% | $4.8K |
Masoud Pezeshkian | Polymarket | 1% | $3.2K |
Reza Pahlavi | Polymarket | 1% | $3.1K |
Mojtaba Khamenei | Polymarket | 1% | $2.4K |
Pope Leo XIV | Polymarket | 1% | $1.8K |
Nicolás Maduro | Polymarket | 1% | $1.7K |
Miguel Díaz-Canel | Polymarket | 1% | $1.1K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 48/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 25/30 | $288K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 14 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
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Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, any eligible confirmed comparison, and the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a workflow: the Crowd–Market Gap Tracker, dated Index Desk reads and drivers, and the Community crowd–market gap value and direction.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Emmanuel Macron at 42% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 64% at the start of coverage to 42% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 42% implied probability for Emmanuel Macron on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market never fully made up its mind: Emmanuel Macron closed at just 42%. The attributed event snapshot reports $288K in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 8 days: Emmanuel Macron opened our coverage at 64%, ranged between 39% and 64%, and closed at 42%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live World odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Who will Trump speak to in July 2026? — Odds?
The market closed with Emmanuel Macron at 42% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Who will Trump speak to in July 2026? — Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 42% for Emmanuel Macron. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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