Fight Night: Yana Santos vs Luana Santos: Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated November 3, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (November 3, 2026) was a 74% implied probability for Luana Santos on Kalshi.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Luana Santos — market favorite
Kalshi
74%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Fight Night
10 categories priced
Still contested
9
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Nick Klein vs Joe Kropschot: Odds
Nick Klein vs Joe Kropschot: Oddssettled
Contested- Joe Kropschot vs. Nick Klein75%
- Joe Kropschot75%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds68%
- Ends before Round 3?55%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds51%
- Fight won by submission?50%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanovsettled
Contested- Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov73%
- Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani73%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds70%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds61%
- Ends before Round 3?49%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?48%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Azamat Bekoev vs Andre Petroski: Oddssettled
Contested- Azamat Bekoev69%
- Petroski in Round 269%
- Bekoev in Round 168%
- Petroski in Round 168%
- Petroski in Round 367%
- Andre Petroski vs. Azamat Bekoev50%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith: Oddssettled
Contested- Jacobe Smith71%
- Ends before Round 3?69%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds66%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?60%
- Smith to win by KO/TKO?51%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds47%
+2 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan: Oddssettled
Contested- Ends before Round 5?69%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds65%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds54%
- Renato Moicano54%
- Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan53%
- Fight won by decision?52%
+4 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Francis Marshall vs Dakota Hope: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds75%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds70%
- Francis Marshall66%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds59%
- Fight to Go the Distance?55%
- Dakota Hope vs. Francis Marshall34%
+5 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds68%
- Rodrigo Sezinando63%
- Ends before Round 3?58%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds56%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?53%
- Theodor Berggren vs. Rodrigo Sezinando39%
+5 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Yana Santos vs Luana Santos: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 1.5 Rounds84%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds75%
- Luana Santos74%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds74%
- Fight to Go the Distance?72%
- Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos26%
+9 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Ode Osbourne vs Cody Durden: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds74%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds63%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?53%
- Cody Durden52%
- Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden49%
- Ends before Round 3?49%
+11 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- Zach Reese78%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds61%
- Ends before Round 3?56%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?54%
- Reese to win by KO/TKO?52%
- Ends before Round 2?50%
+17 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled November 3, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos Moneyline | Polymarket | 26% | $9.2K |
Santos to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 26% | — |
Santos to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 26% | — |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 84% | — |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 75% | — |
Luana Santos | Kalshi | 74% | 11.4K contracts |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 74% | $100 |
Fight to Go the Distance? | Polymarket | 72% | — |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 35/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 10/30 | The event combines unlike venue-native volume units. W.E.T. does not add contracts to dollars, so this component remains at the documented neutral 10/30. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 5/15 | 3 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Luana Santos at 74% implied probability on Kalshi.
- The odds moved from 73% at the start of coverage to 74% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 74% implied probability for Luana Santos on Kalshi.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was Luana Santos at 74% — favored, but not a lock. Dollar volume and contract counts remain separate; no mixed total is published.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 3 days: Luana Santos opened our coverage at 73%, ranged between 73% and 75%, and closed at 74%. Implied probability is the attributed venue listing's price read as a percentage. It repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Fight Night: Yana Santos vs Luana Santos: Odds?
The market closed with Luana Santos at 74% implied probability on Kalshi. That was W.E.T.'s final attributed listing observation before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Fight Night: Yana Santos vs Luana Santos: Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 74% for Luana Santos. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
Related topics
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
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