Fight Night: Rebecki vs Prepolec: Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated August 4, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (August 4, 2026) was a 86% implied probability for Mateusz Rebecki on Kalshi.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Mateusz Rebecki — market favorite
Kalshi
86%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Fight Night
13 categories priced
Still contested
11
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Rakic vs Tybura: Odds
Rakic vs Tybura: Oddssettled
Contested- Aleksandar Rakic78%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds78%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds65%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds50%
- Rakic to win by KO/TKO?47%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?47%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Spasic vs Luciano: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds87%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds85%
- Stephanie Bruna Luciano77%
- Stephanie Luciano vs. Marina Spasic76%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds71%
- Fight to Go the Distance?68%
+2 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Cepo vs Urbina: Oddssettled
Contested- Vlasto Cepo76%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?73%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds67%
- Cepo to win by KO/TKO?65%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds30%
- Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo25%
+3 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Rebecki vs Prepolec: Oddssettled
Contested- Mateusz Rebecki86%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds82%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds61%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds41%
- Fight to Go the Distance?37%
- Rebecki to win by KO/TKO?34%
+4 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Medic vs Rodriguez: Oddssettled
Contested- Fight won by KO/TKO?82%
- Uros Medic77%
- Medic to win by KO/TKO?69%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds66%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds38%
- Daniel Rodriguez24%
+5 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Leka vs Poppeck: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds80%
- Jovan Leka74%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds66%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds49%
- Fight to Go the Distance?42%
- Alexander Poppeck vs. Jovan Leka28%
+6 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Elliott vs Oliveira: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds84%
- Michael Oliveira78%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds62%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?61%
- Oliveira to win by KO/TKO?60%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds41%
+6 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Nikolic vs Vologdin: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds77%
- Borislav Nikolic67%
- Borislav Nikolic vs. Mark Vologdin65%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds65%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds55%
- Fight to Go the Distance?49%
+10 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Janicic vs Gugnon: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds66%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds56%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?53%
- Noah Gugnon52%
- Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon50%
- Milos Janicic49%
+10 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Buzukja vs Grad: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds83%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds70%
- Bogdan Grad66%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds57%
- Fight to Go the Distance?51%
- Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad37%
+13 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Todorovic vs Valentin: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds75%
- Robert Valentin61%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds49%
- Dusko Todorovic41%
- Duško Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin40%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?40%
+14 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Blachowicz vs Stirling: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds91%
- Navajo Stirling76%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds74%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds64%
- Fight to Go the Distance?63%
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling27%
+15 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Klein vs Musayev: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds90%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds74%
- Ludovit Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev70%
- Ludovit Klein70%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds60%
- Fight to Go the Distance?56%
+16 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 4, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Rebecki to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 34% | — |
Kyle Prepolec vs. Mateusz Rebecki Moneyline | Polymarket | 14% | $25.3K |
Prepolec to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 7% | — |
Mateusz Rebecki | Kalshi | 86% | 60K contracts |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 82% | $5 |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 61% | $955 |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 41% | — |
Fight to Go the Distance? | Polymarket | 37% | $233 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 30/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 10/30 | The event combines unlike venue-native volume units. W.E.T. does not add contracts to dollars, so this component remains at the documented neutral 10/30. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
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Key takeaways
- Final market read: Mateusz Rebecki at 86% implied probability on Kalshi.
- The odds moved from 83% at the start of coverage to 86% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 86% implied probability for Mateusz Rebecki on Kalshi.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was Mateusz Rebecki at 86% — favored, but not a lock. Dollar volume and contract counts remain separate; W.E.T. publishes no mixed event total.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 5 days: Mateusz Rebecki opened our coverage at 83%, ranged between 83% and 86%, and closed at 86%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Fight Night: Rebecki vs Prepolec: Odds?
The market closed with Mateusz Rebecki at 86% implied probability on Kalshi. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Fight Night: Rebecki vs Prepolec: Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 86% for Mateusz Rebecki. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/fight-night-rebecki-vs-prepolec-odds-2026-08-02?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=fight-night-rebecki-vs-prepolec-odds-2026-08-02">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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